How did everyone spend their summer? Flew by as usual amiright? So let's start off addressing the elephant at Foxborough. We all know that the collective North North East of the U.S. we know as New England held its breath for nearly the entirety of training camp. New Englanders all finally exhaled last week, creating a significant Southern zephyr, as a Judge overturned Tom Brady's potential four game ban.
Putting any biases towards Brady, the Patriots & Roger Goodell aside, my single largest complaint is the waste of judicial resources in this process. This entire affair involved, lawyers, judges, arbitrators & any number of ancillary officials. When I was a kid, if you cheated or deflated someone else's balls, you either bought them a new one or had to line up and everyone got a free throw to peg you with another ball.
Week 1 - Thursday Night Game:
PIT @ NE (-7)
New England kicks off at home. Without any real stars at RB or WR, the loquacious Bill "no comment" Belichick looks to continue to produce offensively by committee. Of course, when you have Rob Gronkowski playing TE, your playbook really only needs to be one play, with multiple check downs inserted. On defense, New England should be decent, although noticeably absent will be fan favorite, Vince Wolfolk, who could swallow a gap almost at will. My guess is that the Patriots play a numbers game this year, not worrying too much about points given up, hoping that the offense can always score a bit more.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, rolls in with a very un-Steelers-like team. Often favored for its staunch defense ("Steel Curtain"), this year's club looks more like a baby blanket. Losing many fan favorites to retirement, this defense is so bad, that when asked about getting the defense ready, long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau reportedly said the Korean War was a cakewalk compared to coaching this group. In fact, he resigned from the Steelers in January and took an assistant coaching position with Tennessee a few months later. On offense, however, Pittsburgh has a chance to be very well balanced, maybe even explosive. The Steelers are stocked at WR, with Anotonio Brown looking to lead the league in almost every category. They'll be even better once Martavis Bryant comes back from suspension. Speaking of which, RB Le'Veon Bell will also miss a few games, but when he returns, QB Ben Roethlisberger should have the ability to finally run an excellent play-action game. Until then, just throw downfield to Brown.
Although the Steelers will likely score a lot during this year, don't expect them to be fully up to speed until around week 5, when all their weapons should return. I like the Patriots to take the home opener, with Pittsburgh covering the spread.
Week 1 around here, much like the NFL season, is just about working out the finer points. I hope everyone gets a chance to at least watch a few college football games today. As I tell my wife Jen (who has now exceeded me in number of fantasy NFL leagues in which she participates), you need to pay some attention to these players - after all, you'll be drafting some next year.
Here we go with some more Week 1 NFL picks:
TEN @ KC (-3.5)
Remember when the Chiefs won 9 straight games to start the
2013 season? You don’t? That’s because everyone remembers the last 8 (including
the playoffs) where they went 2-6. In a very much “what have you done for me
lately?” situation, the Chiefs simply need to play like the team from the first
half of last year or else they may find themselves very much forgotten again –
even by their own fans:
Steady-handed QB Alex Smith hopes he can discover a new
favorite target, now that they will be without Dwayne Bowe (suspension). I hear
former TE great, Tony Gonzalez is available. By default or necessity, leave it
to all-purpose RB Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs once again in nearly every category;
just don’t ask him to move any furniture during the bye
week.
The Tennessee Titans face a world of questions to start the
season. Will Jake Locker remain healthy? (Answer: not likely). Will new coach
Kent Whisenhunt be able to squeeze as much offensive talent as he has in
previous stints in Pittsburgh and Arizona? (Answer: definitely). Will anyone
step up in the running game to makes us reminisce about the days when Chris
Johnson was actually a threat? (Answer: maybe rookie Bishop Sankey…in a few
years). Look for the big-splash (by Tennessee standards) signee, Dexter
McCluster, try to break out against his former team. McCluster, primarily used
as a return man (Pro Bowler), should be given many different looks in a
Whisenhunt-planned offense. Despite this, I expect them to struggle a bit
acclimating, until #1 WR’s & RB’s emerge to help the talented Locker.
I think Andy Reid has his group start well as they did last
year, doing more than enough to beat the visiting Titans.
Spread: KC
Straight Up: KC
Score: 30-20
NE @ MIA (+5)
If you believe in the simple rule of spreads, namely that a
home team automatically receives 3 points, then Miami is in for a very long game.
The Dolphins have all the makings of a mediocre team; an overpaid and
underachieving WR (Mike Wallace) and loads of potential in RB Lamar Miller and
QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace, known for his downfield speed (and running his
mouth), should stick to the former, which he failed all too often to do last year, only
getting into the end zone 5 times. With a better than average defense, Miami
will likely play around 500 all year. Here, I just don’t see them being strong
enough on either side of the ball to really challenge Tom Brady and the
Patriots.
I hate the Patriots. I won’t let it cloud my judgment, but I
really don’t like them. Having gone to college in New England, the only thing
worse than listening to a Patriots fan during football season (they won the
Super Bowl 3 out of my 4 years there), perhaps is listening to a Red Sox fan
talk about anything. Here is a simple prediction. The number of points scored per
game this season will be directly related to Rob Gronkowski’s health. Talk
about RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley or WR’s Julian Edelman or Danny
Amendola, as far as I’m concerned, let them all stay on the line blocking. If
Gronk is healthy, they can put up 35 points/game, easily. Now, if he isn’t
100%, then their strong defense will look to keep them in games.
Here, against
this Dolphins team, half a Gronk should suffice. I’ll take the Patriots by a lot.
Spread: NE
Straight Up: NE
Score: 38-18
OAK @ NYJ (-5.5)
The New York Jets enter the season with nearly identical
questions to the start of the 2013 campaign. Will Rex Ryan survive as the
coach? Is Geno Smith the QB of the future? If Geno starts making the throw can anyone
catch the ball? I think the answer is categorically, no. Ryan has gotten along
for far too long on bravado without any true results. His offensive teams are
like football’s version of the DH – just collect a paycheck and die out.
Defensively, we know he can coach and his players happily buy into his system.
Too bad their enthusiasm can’t make the offense synch up. Smith, much like last
year, stands to struggle while he tries to find a reliable offensive target. Newcomer
Eric Decker should be a solid addition at WR to a group that surely needs
standout. Unfortunately, for Decker, Peyton Manning with a vertebrae injury,
throwing lefty from his hospital bed, is probably more reliable than Smith. Rookie
TE Jase Amaro might one day be Smith’s go-to, but who knows though if he
develops soon enough for Smith to still be starting. Knowing that rookie QB
Derek Carr will get the start for Oakland, I look forward to seeing Ryan blitz
early and often, particularly with his new rookie safety, Calvin Pryor.
Aside from Carr and heralded first round draft pick, Khaleel
Mack at LB, the Raiders field a team of players beyond their prime. They
re-signed the oft-injured, but consistently disappointing Darren McFadden to
split reps with Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD, who pretty much wasted a career
playing for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, now looks to rejuvenate himself in
Oakland. I just don’t see it ending well. I think Carr will show flashes of
potential, but overall, the Raiders are just not that good. Against the Jets,
much like the remainder of the season, they’ll play close enough to keep it
exciting for 3 quarters, only to lose it all in the end.
I like the Jets to win, but the Raiders to cover. Take the
points.
Spread: OAK
Straight Up: NYJ
Score: 20-17
JAC @ PHI (-10)
This is really a tale of two teams: Philadelphia is a score
now and ask questions later type team and Jacksonville just stinks. Eagles
coach Brian Kelly is known as somewhat of an offensive guru, but if it were me,
I’d only need one play – draw to LeSean McCoy. Until any team proves that they
can stop him regularly (which none thus far have been able to do), just feed
him the ball as much as possible. If, on occasion, he needs a rest, Eagles fans
can take comfort in the fact that QB Nick Foles has developed into a reliable
passer, oh and the Eagles also have possibly the fastest man in football now in
Darren Sproles. Many questions remain on the defensive end, however,
Philadelphia looks to outscore nearly everyone they play this year,
particularly in a weakened NFC East.
Good thing that first year head coach Gus Bradley is a
defense-first type; his defense will be on the field a lot this year. They
added a slew of veterans on defense (mostly guys no one has ever heard of) to
compliment LB Paul Posluszny, who has looked like the real leader of the
defense group. For all the defensive talk, though, all eyes will be on the
offense. The Jags went out and spent their first round draft pick on QB Blake
Bortles, a highly scrutinized choice, that looks, thus far, to have been a
great long-term decision. Current starter Chad Henne is merely there as a
placeholder, just waiting for the loyal fans to clamor enough for Bradley to
pull the hook on him. I give them six weeks before Bortles is starting at home
in a possible rookie vs. rookie matchup against the Browns and Johnny Manziel.
I am always wary of double-digit spreads, but until the Jags
show they can stop anyone, I see a lot of lopsided losses. The Eagles, as we
know, have the potential to score loads of points, with the only real opponent
being the clock running out of time. I’m taking the Eagles.
