Week 1 - Sunday Early Games

We got our football appetites wet on Thursday. One game in and we already have our first controversy. Looking forward to see what the rest of this weekend's games bring.

Let's get right to the games:

IND @ BUF (+2.5)



The Rex Ryan era starts in Buffalo. I am always skeptical when the biggest off-season acquisition is your coach. Granted, the Bills also went out and acquired RB LeSean McCoy, who by many accounts, is a shell of what he used to be in Philadelphia. Regardless, if we have learned anything about Rex Ryan's teams is that they will be very good on defense and at best, inconsistent on offense. Expect much of the same this year, with both the QB & RB positions in-flux. Poor play by either of these positions severely limits second year WR Sammy Watkins potential to accrue big numbers, as he likely will face double coverage much of the year.

On Sunday lining up against the Bills defense will be RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson. Is this a throwback Pro Bowl Team circa 2010? Nope - it's just the Colts going out and getting some very serviceable talent until all their young players are fully ready.  Both Johnson and Gore are coming off of years playing for really bad offensive teams, however, with a talent like QB Andrew Luck, they no longer have to be THE GUY and can settle into complimentary roles in a well-balanced offense.


I think this game will be close enough, but with Gore & Luck able to manage the clock in the 4th quarter, I like the Colts to keep the Bills at bay.  Colts by a FG.

Spread: IND
Straight Up: IND
Score: 20-17

GB @ CHI (+6.5)

Simply put, the Bears are not very good and the Packers are. Not much to the analysis here. Unfortunately, the Packers lost WR Jordy Nelson for the season, but have more than enough talent to put points on the board. Speaking of talent, anyone see QB Aaron Rogers on Celebrity Jeopardy? The man is versatile, that's all I'm saying.

The Bears meanwhile seem to be going through a slew of injuries, particularly to their WR core. If their starters, particularly WR Alshon Jeffrey are unable to play, this will put even more pressure on RB Matt Forte and QB Jay Cutler. Forte seems to handle pressure well, but Cutler is another story. Regardless, the Bears look like they are in for a very difficult game and and even more difficult season.

I think the Packers score early and often and will cover handily.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 35-17

KC @ HOU (-1)

This is one of those games where I'd rather watch the defenses be on the field. The Chiefs have some talent on offense with RB Jamaal Charles and newly acquired WR Jeremy Maclin. The Texans have some decent weapons on their end, however are without RB Arian Foster for the first few games of the season. Even when he returns, their offense experience some growing pains and likely won't see any consistency until at least Week 7.

We can't talk about the Houston defense without mentioning DE J.J. Watt. I don't know him personally, but there does not seem to be a more talented and humble person playing the game of football today. I hope that Houston gets smart and starts using him full-time in iron man football this season. The bromance is real. Houston improves it's defense with ultimate run stopper Vince "the human forklift" Wilfork and the hopeful healthy return of herald LB Jadeveon Clowney. Kansas City, to their own credit, has some real speed on the defensive front, particularly from DE Tamba Hali.

Defense will be key here and whoever has more takeaways should win the game. Chiefs QB Alex Smith is known for control and I think he'll keep the turnovers to a minimum. I like the Chiefs to sneak away with a close win on the road in Houston.

Spread: KC
Straight Up: KC
Score: 17-14

CAR @ JAC (+3)

This game is very important for both teams, because after about Week 8, both teams are likely going to be out of the running for a playoff spot. The biggest question for the Jaguars this year is how will second year QB Blake Bortles fair. He'll be better if they ever get TE Julius Thomas back from injury. Until then, they'll rely heavily on rookie RB T.J. Yeldon, hope Bortles can keep the interceptions to a minimum (doubtful) and hope the defense is able to keep things competitive.

Did all of the Panthers hopes at being competitive go down with WR and freakish athlete Kelvin Benjamin's season ending injury? Probably not. They were doomed from the start. QB Cam Newton has come back down to reality a bit and is now just an above-average talent, without much help by way of offensive weapons. On defense, Carolina just resigned LB Luke Kuechly, a great talent. Too bad he can't play three positions at once.

I don't see either team playing overly inspired, nor scoring much. I like the Jags at home getting points, but the Panthers getting the road victory.

Spread: JAGS
Straight Up: CAR
Score: 17-16

CLE @ NYJ (-3)

We all know about the Jets starting the season after QB Geno Smith broke his jaw earlier in training camp. So they'll start the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I think this is an improvement at the position, if only in cutting down the turnovers. Add in WR's Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and the Jets have themselves some potential to put a few points on the board.

The Browns, unfortunately, look to be the same as they have been in years past - pretty terrible. Their defense may keep them in games, but I wouldn't expect much from them by way of their offense. Browns fans may want to start paying better attention to those Saturday College Football games, because they are likely to be in the running for that #1 draft pick by the end of this season.

I think the Jets take this game easily covering the spread.

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: NYJScore: 21-10

SEA @ STL (+4)

The Rams start the year with several young RB's, most of whom are currently hurt (Tre Mason & Todd Gurley) and a brand new QB in Nick Foles. When healthy, they have the potential to put up a lot of points. Until they get up to that point, they will have to rely heavily on a defense that should be decent.

Even the casual football fan knows that the Seahawks have been one of the most successful franchises of the last few years. They are nearly unstoppable at home and still pretty good on the road. I don't see them having too much trouble with the Rams.

I like Seattle to get the road victory, but the Rams will keep it close. I'll take the points.

Spread: STL
Straight Up: SEA
Score: 23-20

MIA @ WAS (+3.5)

The RGIII-less Redskins may be almost as bad as the Browns. QB Kirk Cousins isn't bad, but he is going to need a lot of help this year. I just don't see anyone on the team stepping up.

Miami enters the season putting their winning hopes on the shoulders of QB Ryan Tannehill. Unlike Cousins in Washington, Tannehill should finally have a good supporting cast on offense. Adding Ndamukong Suh on defense should only help bolster that side of the field, assuming he can keep the stupid penalties and subsequent suspensions to a minimum. Doubtful though.

It is never good to be getting points at home, but Washington isn't favored for a reason. I like Miami to cover, winning by a touchdown.

Spread: MIA
Straight Up: MIA
Score: 31-24

Week 2 Late Games

Looking forward to another great weekend of football. Let's get right to the late games:

SEA @ SD (+6)

Seattle looked great against the Packers in week 1. Meanwhile, the Chargers answered the question “can you ever just be ‘whelmed’?” on offense. While not an under-whelming performance, they truly looked uninspired in their loss to the Cardinals. I can’t see them scoring more points on a much better Seahawks defense, even playing at home. Six points are a lot for a visiting team, but I like the Seahawks to cover.

Spread: SEA

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-17

STL @ TB (-4.5)

I just checked the TV listings and this game is being blocked out in both the St. Louis and Tampa local markets. I think everyone would rather watch Shawshank Redemption another time, than be subjected to this. Much like the Giants, until the Rams prove that they can score, I pretty much like any team playing them. Lovie Smith’s Bucs couldn’t pull out the victory last week against a Camless Panthers team. This week, no one really knows who will be starting at QB for the Rams, but really, does it matter? Since I don’t think either team is likely to score that much, I’ll take the Rams to cover (moral victory anyone?), but I like TB to win. 

Spread: STL

Straight Up: TB

Score: 13-10

KC @ DEN (-13)

These two teams are heading quickly in two very different directions. The Chiefs lost two of their anchors on defense last week for the season (Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson). This would be bad enough if they also can't seem to figure out a way to score. Enter Peyton Manning and the Broncos and this will always make for a double digit spread. Look for Manning, who is so adept and exposing other team's weaknesses, to do just that on Sunday. I don't see this game being very close, my only question is if the Broncos ease up on the gas enough to let the Chiefs hang around. This week, I think they learn their lesson and put the game far out of reach.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: DEN

Score: 38-13

NYJ @ GB (-8.5)

Green Bay had a tough go having to start their season in Seattle. Although the Jets are certainly a lesser opponent than the Seahawks, the Packers may have to try to win without Eddie Lacy. If that is the case, expect a heavy dose of Rodgers to any number of his WR's (particularly Cobb & Nelson). I think the Jets will stick around most of the game, but in the end, Rodgers will always have one last TD in his back pocket. Jets to cover, but Packers for the win. 

Spread: NYJ

Straight Up: GB

Score: 27-20 

HOU @ OAK (+3)

I feel for Derek Carr. He makes his first career start against a pretty good Jets defense only to go make his home debut against the Texans and J.J. Watt. Oh yeah - he also plays for the Raiders. Neither of these teams looked overly impressive on offense, so I think this game will be close the whole way. I think the Texans are better and the Raiders haven't figured out just yet how to win close games. Texans to win, but I'll take the points with the home Raiders.   

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: HOU

Score: 19-17 

CHI @ SF (-7)

The Bears and 49ers started their seasons in almost polar opposite fashion; the former by a FG in OT, the latter taking the lead on their team's first defensive possession and never looking back. Despite the off the field troubles for the 49ers, they seem to be one of the better balanced teams in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, we know Chicago has made a marked change towards the offensive end. Last week, the 49ers pretty much scored at will - I expect much of the same against the Bears. The only question is how many points their defense will let up. In the end, I think they do enough to cover.  

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 31-21 

PHI @ IND (-3)

The Eagles got a scare last week from the Jags, proving that they are a team will vulnerabilities. That's the good news (for all non Eagles fans). The bad, they also proved that they could score 34 unanswered points in one half. The Colts, meanwhile, went on the road and nearly came back on the Broncos, proving that they too can score in bulk (17 points in the second half). I don't see either defense being too effective in this game, so I think it will come down to clock management. I like Andrew Luck's ability to do so, particularly at home and think the Colts do enough win and cover.

Spread: IND

Straight Up: IND

Score: 36-31 

Week 1 Picks (some early games)

First game of the year surprised me a bit (I can't be the only one right?). Seattle looked about as good as expected, but it was Green Bay that looked surprisingly flat. An Eddie Lacy concussion, bad penalties and suspect defense play all have the makings of a long season for the Packers.  More to come in the Monday Download. 

Let's get right to the next set of games.

NO @ ATL (+3)

Several years ago, these games used to be a lot closer. Now, each team appears to be heading in different directions. New Orleans, already an explosive offense, went out and drafted speedy WR Brandin Cooks, only furthering their depth there. The Saints do have some questions at the RB position with no one definitely taking charge. Mark Ingram will likely start as the #1 back, but who finishes the season as the leading rusher is anybody’s best guess. Drew Brees, however, should be just fine throwing to any number of his weapons, including Jimmy “don’tcall me TE” Graham.

Atlanta, similar to the Saints, has nice depth for their wide receivers and should be just fine on that front, assuming Julio Jones stays healthy this year. Losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement won't help them, but may create some more opportunities for other players like Harry Douglas (full disclosure, I’m a very big Louisville Cardinals fan). The Falcons, much like the Saints, have a lot of questions at the RB position. Starter Steven Jackson, 31, is old by NFL standards and I can’t see him playing a full schedule this year. Until Jackson proves that he can help open up some gaps for the Falcons, I expect Rob Ryan to blitz early and often with his Saints’ defense. Matt Ryan will have his hands full.

New Orleans is getting 3 points, but I’d have taken them getting 9.  I think they pull out the easy victory by 10.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 34-24

CIN @ BAL (-1.5)

I just don’t think Baltimore is that good. They have speed with their WR’s and an extra pop with the addition of Steve Smith. No Ray Rice means Bernard Pierce will handle the RB load. He is a capable, big back, but more of a head on collision type of runner than your elusive, lateral runner. Their defense should be solid as usual and I look forward to seeing rookie C.J. Mosley make his impact felt immediately, but their lack of offensive capabilities should likely stunt Joe Flacco and co.’s ability to get into the end zone.

Cincinnati enters the season very similar to the previous ones – likely to finish atop a mediocre division only to fizzle out come playoff time. The Bengals return Giovani Bernard at RB and of course, A.J. Green at WR, to compliment the sometimes shaky, Andy Dalton at QB. They have added some depth at both the RB & WR positions and should be solid on the defensive end, particularly with their CB play. In this game, they just need to outscore Baltimore, which shouldn't be a problem.

Take Cincinnati, the underdog here, getting points.

Spread: CIN

Straight Up: CIN

Score: 13-10

BUF @ CHI (-6.5)

Good news for Buffalo is that they’re playing in Chicago while it’s still warm. Bad news, pretty much everything else. Yes, they have a young QB in E.J Manuel (who might not even be starting by week 4). They also have a pretty good RB combo of C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson, who we’d like to see both remain healthy. They went out and drafted speedy WR Sammy Watkins with their first draft pick, who will be fun to watch assuming anyone can get him the ball. Buffalo seems to be banking on the future, but unfortunately for Bills fans, the future is not now.

Chicago seemed to gain a bit of revitalization on the offensive side with Marc Trestman at the helm. 

His cerebral approach to the game makes me want him to coach someone like Peyton Manning, rather than the impulsively prone, Jay Cutler. The person who benefited most from the new offensive scheme appears to be Matt Forte, who should see continued improvement in terms of number of carries and yardage, as the team strikes a healthy balance with WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Unlike Bears team of years past, this team will be led by their offense with their defense doing just enough to let them win.

I like the Bears at home giving a shade under a TD.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: CHI

Score: 24-17

WAS @ HOU (-2.5)

I think this has the potential to be one of the better match-ups of the day. Two teams that I think, unfortunately, will likely repeat their modest performances of last year. Houston starts the year off with a bunch of new faces. New head coach Bill O’Brien, starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick and this year’s #1 draft pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Fitzpatrick probably has the most complimentary offensive tools (WR’s Andre Johnson & DeAndre Hopkins along with RB’s Arian Foster & Andre Brown) in his professional career thus far. Clowney, a beyond impressive athlete, will be playing in an unfamiliar position (OLB) and hasn't had much on the field practice due to injuries. I expect a fairly steep learning curve for him with some flashes of his potential of what is to come in a few years. He may have to learn quickly, though, as Washington (and all future opponents) will likely spend most of the day running away from the new 100 Million Dollar man – J.J. Watt, from whom we could all learn a lesson in work ethic.

Washington kicks off the year under new head coach, Jay Gruden. Gruden, known as a QB-friendly coach and offensive mind (debatable to some Cincinnati fans), no doubt was brought in by owner Dan Snyder to try and get Robert Griffin III (RGIII) back on track. Since entering the league, perhaps no QB has had such a quick rise and fall with a chance to still rise again. The acquisition of WR DeSean Jackson, flanked to the opposite side of Pierre Garcon, along with Pro Bowler Alfred Morris at RB, should all help ease some of the pressure off RGIII. The truth though, RGIII likes being option #1 & #2 as evidenced by his continuing inability to know when to slide or go out of bounds. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins as a viable QB, I don’t think Griffin has too long (read too many hits on the run), before Cousins supplants him as starter, that is if Snyder doesn't trade him to gain back the draft picks they traded away to get RGIII in the first place.

I think this game will be close throughout, with Houston leading most of the way. I see Fitz (for all the in-game references to his intellect – he really is a smart guy), making one bad throw during a critical portion of the 4^th quarter. I see Washington capitalizing and coming down kicking a game winning FG, ruining the first appearance of the “new” Texans.

Spread: WAS

Straight Up: WAS

Score: 27-24

SF @ DAL (+5)

Was I the only person left off the guest list for Ray McDonald’s party last week? Between injuries, suspensions (both drug related and otherwise), it seems like the season could not start soon enough for the 49ers.  Despite being without some of their best defense players, Jim Harbaugh’s team should be just fine. Colin Kaepernick stands to have one of those college-like days; maybe 150 yards passing, 100 or so rushing. When he gets tired of spreading the wealth among his ample receiving options (including TE Vernon Davis), he’ll be able to call on the ever reliable, Frank Gore at RB. Don’t be surprised to see some action from #2 RB, rookie, Carlos Hyde, who should be a ton of fun to watch.

From everything that I am hearing and reading, Dallas might have the worst defense…ever. The usually spend happy Cowboys really did nothing to ensure fielding a well-balanced team for the next 17 or so weeks.  If what we all know is going to happen, happens, Romo will be the scapegoat and the ‘Boys will likely be in the cellar of a less than spectacular NFC East. At least we might be able to see Michael Sam get off the practice squad and into the starting lineup by season’s end.

49ers giving 5 points on the road is really just an embarrassment to the Cowboys. I like them to cover though. It is going to be a long season of frowns in Jerry Jones’ owner box, starting with this opener.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 28-10