Panic Mode for Broncos?

What did we learn last week? That it was just Week 1 and we can't panic yet, even if we're Giants fans. 

Let's get right to tonight's game:

DEN @ KC (-3)

Let's not go crazy because of everyone's fear over Manning's lack of arm strength. He is a bright QB and can still find ways to win. I'd worry more about C.J. Anderson's turf toe. Still, I'm a gambling man and will take the points, but pick the Chiefs to win.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: KC

Score: 26-24

Yeah, arm's fine, thanks for asking Tamba

Week 1 - Sunday Early Games

We got our football appetites wet on Thursday. One game in and we already have our first controversy. Looking forward to see what the rest of this weekend's games bring.

Let's get right to the games:

IND @ BUF (+2.5)



The Rex Ryan era starts in Buffalo. I am always skeptical when the biggest off-season acquisition is your coach. Granted, the Bills also went out and acquired RB LeSean McCoy, who by many accounts, is a shell of what he used to be in Philadelphia. Regardless, if we have learned anything about Rex Ryan's teams is that they will be very good on defense and at best, inconsistent on offense. Expect much of the same this year, with both the QB & RB positions in-flux. Poor play by either of these positions severely limits second year WR Sammy Watkins potential to accrue big numbers, as he likely will face double coverage much of the year.

On Sunday lining up against the Bills defense will be RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson. Is this a throwback Pro Bowl Team circa 2010? Nope - it's just the Colts going out and getting some very serviceable talent until all their young players are fully ready.  Both Johnson and Gore are coming off of years playing for really bad offensive teams, however, with a talent like QB Andrew Luck, they no longer have to be THE GUY and can settle into complimentary roles in a well-balanced offense.


I think this game will be close enough, but with Gore & Luck able to manage the clock in the 4th quarter, I like the Colts to keep the Bills at bay.  Colts by a FG.

Spread: IND
Straight Up: IND
Score: 20-17

GB @ CHI (+6.5)

Simply put, the Bears are not very good and the Packers are. Not much to the analysis here. Unfortunately, the Packers lost WR Jordy Nelson for the season, but have more than enough talent to put points on the board. Speaking of talent, anyone see QB Aaron Rogers on Celebrity Jeopardy? The man is versatile, that's all I'm saying.

The Bears meanwhile seem to be going through a slew of injuries, particularly to their WR core. If their starters, particularly WR Alshon Jeffrey are unable to play, this will put even more pressure on RB Matt Forte and QB Jay Cutler. Forte seems to handle pressure well, but Cutler is another story. Regardless, the Bears look like they are in for a very difficult game and and even more difficult season.

I think the Packers score early and often and will cover handily.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 35-17

KC @ HOU (-1)

This is one of those games where I'd rather watch the defenses be on the field. The Chiefs have some talent on offense with RB Jamaal Charles and newly acquired WR Jeremy Maclin. The Texans have some decent weapons on their end, however are without RB Arian Foster for the first few games of the season. Even when he returns, their offense experience some growing pains and likely won't see any consistency until at least Week 7.

We can't talk about the Houston defense without mentioning DE J.J. Watt. I don't know him personally, but there does not seem to be a more talented and humble person playing the game of football today. I hope that Houston gets smart and starts using him full-time in iron man football this season. The bromance is real. Houston improves it's defense with ultimate run stopper Vince "the human forklift" Wilfork and the hopeful healthy return of herald LB Jadeveon Clowney. Kansas City, to their own credit, has some real speed on the defensive front, particularly from DE Tamba Hali.

Defense will be key here and whoever has more takeaways should win the game. Chiefs QB Alex Smith is known for control and I think he'll keep the turnovers to a minimum. I like the Chiefs to sneak away with a close win on the road in Houston.

Spread: KC
Straight Up: KC
Score: 17-14

CAR @ JAC (+3)

This game is very important for both teams, because after about Week 8, both teams are likely going to be out of the running for a playoff spot. The biggest question for the Jaguars this year is how will second year QB Blake Bortles fair. He'll be better if they ever get TE Julius Thomas back from injury. Until then, they'll rely heavily on rookie RB T.J. Yeldon, hope Bortles can keep the interceptions to a minimum (doubtful) and hope the defense is able to keep things competitive.

Did all of the Panthers hopes at being competitive go down with WR and freakish athlete Kelvin Benjamin's season ending injury? Probably not. They were doomed from the start. QB Cam Newton has come back down to reality a bit and is now just an above-average talent, without much help by way of offensive weapons. On defense, Carolina just resigned LB Luke Kuechly, a great talent. Too bad he can't play three positions at once.

I don't see either team playing overly inspired, nor scoring much. I like the Jags at home getting points, but the Panthers getting the road victory.

Spread: JAGS
Straight Up: CAR
Score: 17-16

CLE @ NYJ (-3)

We all know about the Jets starting the season after QB Geno Smith broke his jaw earlier in training camp. So they'll start the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I think this is an improvement at the position, if only in cutting down the turnovers. Add in WR's Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and the Jets have themselves some potential to put a few points on the board.

The Browns, unfortunately, look to be the same as they have been in years past - pretty terrible. Their defense may keep them in games, but I wouldn't expect much from them by way of their offense. Browns fans may want to start paying better attention to those Saturday College Football games, because they are likely to be in the running for that #1 draft pick by the end of this season.

I think the Jets take this game easily covering the spread.

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: NYJScore: 21-10

SEA @ STL (+4)

The Rams start the year with several young RB's, most of whom are currently hurt (Tre Mason & Todd Gurley) and a brand new QB in Nick Foles. When healthy, they have the potential to put up a lot of points. Until they get up to that point, they will have to rely heavily on a defense that should be decent.

Even the casual football fan knows that the Seahawks have been one of the most successful franchises of the last few years. They are nearly unstoppable at home and still pretty good on the road. I don't see them having too much trouble with the Rams.

I like Seattle to get the road victory, but the Rams will keep it close. I'll take the points.

Spread: STL
Straight Up: SEA
Score: 23-20

MIA @ WAS (+3.5)

The RGIII-less Redskins may be almost as bad as the Browns. QB Kirk Cousins isn't bad, but he is going to need a lot of help this year. I just don't see anyone on the team stepping up.

Miami enters the season putting their winning hopes on the shoulders of QB Ryan Tannehill. Unlike Cousins in Washington, Tannehill should finally have a good supporting cast on offense. Adding Ndamukong Suh on defense should only help bolster that side of the field, assuming he can keep the stupid penalties and subsequent suspensions to a minimum. Doubtful though.

It is never good to be getting points at home, but Washington isn't favored for a reason. I like Miami to cover, winning by a touchdown.

Spread: MIA
Straight Up: MIA
Score: 31-24

49ers Stink or do They? (Week 3 Late Games)

Some good late games this week, including a rematch of last year's Super Bowl:

Too Many TO's from Kap

SF @ ARI (+2.5)

The Cardinals have been fairly unremarkable in their two wins. First barely getting by the Chargers and last week hardly having to show up against the Giants. Meanwhile, the 49ers did everything possible to give up a huge lead to the Bears, exposing many of the team's flaws (QB turnovers and a weak secondary). Lucky for the 49ers that Drew Stanton really didn't show much last week against the Giants. I think the 49ers come back strong here getting the win on the road and barely covering.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 24-20 

KC @ MIA (-4.5)

Bad news for the Chiefs, where it appears they may be without star RB Jamaal Charles, who has a high ankle sprain. The questions is, even if he played, can the Chiefs even win a game? The Dolphins had a great opener at home, then laid an egg last week in Buffalo. I'll chalk it up more to the Bills being better than everything first thought. I think this game will be close throughout, with the Dolphins getting the win. I'll take the points though.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: MIA

Score: 17-14

DEN @ SEA (-4.5)

We all know what happened the last time these teams met. This year, despite both teams showing they can still score, it is their defenses that have been a bit suspect. For all his talk about individual accolades, the Sherminator (I don't really think he calls himself this) is useful if the entire team plays well. Also, when challenged last week by the Chargers, he wasn't all that impressive. Maybe change the name - thoughts Parkman?

Thoughts Richard?

As for the Broncos, they too have not been overly impressive on the defensive end and have yet to get the ball moving well via the running game. Seahawks never lose at home and the Broncos can score in bunches. I like Seattle to win, but I'll take the points here.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-28

PIT @ CAR (-3)

Panthers are 2-0 and the Steelers appears to be inconsistent. They can't score consistently and they can't defend at all. Carolina appears to be able to do both. I'll take the Panthers on all fronts.

Spread: CAR

Straight Up: CAR

Score: 24-10

Folk for the Win?

CHI @ NYJ (-2) 

The Jets looked pretty good last week, then came out and pulled a "Jags" in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Bears looked like the comeback kids, walking all over the 49ers in the 4th quarter. What do we glean from these games? Nothing really. Inconsistency is the new normal in the NFL. I see this as a game of turnovers, with the team getting the last one connecting on a FG. I'll take the home team for the win on MNF, but I'm taking the points.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 24-23

Week 2 Late Games

Looking forward to another great weekend of football. Let's get right to the late games:

SEA @ SD (+6)

Seattle looked great against the Packers in week 1. Meanwhile, the Chargers answered the question “can you ever just be ‘whelmed’?” on offense. While not an under-whelming performance, they truly looked uninspired in their loss to the Cardinals. I can’t see them scoring more points on a much better Seahawks defense, even playing at home. Six points are a lot for a visiting team, but I like the Seahawks to cover.

Spread: SEA

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-17

STL @ TB (-4.5)

I just checked the TV listings and this game is being blocked out in both the St. Louis and Tampa local markets. I think everyone would rather watch Shawshank Redemption another time, than be subjected to this. Much like the Giants, until the Rams prove that they can score, I pretty much like any team playing them. Lovie Smith’s Bucs couldn’t pull out the victory last week against a Camless Panthers team. This week, no one really knows who will be starting at QB for the Rams, but really, does it matter? Since I don’t think either team is likely to score that much, I’ll take the Rams to cover (moral victory anyone?), but I like TB to win. 

Spread: STL

Straight Up: TB

Score: 13-10

KC @ DEN (-13)

These two teams are heading quickly in two very different directions. The Chiefs lost two of their anchors on defense last week for the season (Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson). This would be bad enough if they also can't seem to figure out a way to score. Enter Peyton Manning and the Broncos and this will always make for a double digit spread. Look for Manning, who is so adept and exposing other team's weaknesses, to do just that on Sunday. I don't see this game being very close, my only question is if the Broncos ease up on the gas enough to let the Chiefs hang around. This week, I think they learn their lesson and put the game far out of reach.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: DEN

Score: 38-13

NYJ @ GB (-8.5)

Green Bay had a tough go having to start their season in Seattle. Although the Jets are certainly a lesser opponent than the Seahawks, the Packers may have to try to win without Eddie Lacy. If that is the case, expect a heavy dose of Rodgers to any number of his WR's (particularly Cobb & Nelson). I think the Jets will stick around most of the game, but in the end, Rodgers will always have one last TD in his back pocket. Jets to cover, but Packers for the win. 

Spread: NYJ

Straight Up: GB

Score: 27-20 

HOU @ OAK (+3)

I feel for Derek Carr. He makes his first career start against a pretty good Jets defense only to go make his home debut against the Texans and J.J. Watt. Oh yeah - he also plays for the Raiders. Neither of these teams looked overly impressive on offense, so I think this game will be close the whole way. I think the Texans are better and the Raiders haven't figured out just yet how to win close games. Texans to win, but I'll take the points with the home Raiders.   

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: HOU

Score: 19-17 

CHI @ SF (-7)

The Bears and 49ers started their seasons in almost polar opposite fashion; the former by a FG in OT, the latter taking the lead on their team's first defensive possession and never looking back. Despite the off the field troubles for the 49ers, they seem to be one of the better balanced teams in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, we know Chicago has made a marked change towards the offensive end. Last week, the 49ers pretty much scored at will - I expect much of the same against the Bears. The only question is how many points their defense will let up. In the end, I think they do enough to cover.  

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 31-21 

PHI @ IND (-3)

The Eagles got a scare last week from the Jags, proving that they are a team will vulnerabilities. That's the good news (for all non Eagles fans). The bad, they also proved that they could score 34 unanswered points in one half. The Colts, meanwhile, went on the road and nearly came back on the Broncos, proving that they too can score in bulk (17 points in the second half). I don't see either defense being too effective in this game, so I think it will come down to clock management. I like Andrew Luck's ability to do so, particularly at home and think the Colts do enough win and cover.

Spread: IND

Straight Up: IND

Score: 36-31 

24 Hours to Kickoff

Week 1 around here, much like the NFL season, is just about working out the finer points. I hope everyone gets a chance to at least watch a few college football games today. As I tell my wife Jen (who has now exceeded me in number of fantasy NFL leagues in which she participates), you need to pay some attention to these players - after all, you'll be drafting some next year. 

Here we go with some more Week 1 NFL picks:

TEN @ KC (-3.5)

Remember when the Chiefs won 9 straight games to start the 2013 season? You don’t? That’s because everyone remembers the last 8 (including the playoffs) where they went 2-6. In a very much “what have you done for me lately?” situation, the Chiefs simply need to play like the team from the first half of last year or else they may find themselves very much forgotten again – even by their own fans: 

Steady-handed QB Alex Smith hopes he can discover a new favorite target, now that they will be without Dwayne Bowe (suspension). I hear former TE great, Tony Gonzalez is available. By default or necessity, leave it to all-purpose RB Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs once again in nearly every category; just don’t ask him to move any furniture during the bye week.

The Tennessee Titans face a world of questions to start the season. Will Jake Locker remain healthy? (Answer: not likely). Will new coach Kent Whisenhunt be able to squeeze as much offensive talent as he has in previous stints in Pittsburgh and Arizona? (Answer: definitely). Will anyone step up in the running game to makes us reminisce about the days when Chris Johnson was actually a threat? (Answer: maybe rookie Bishop Sankey…in a few years). Look for the big-splash (by Tennessee standards) signee, Dexter McCluster, try to break out against his former team. McCluster, primarily used as a return man (Pro Bowler), should be given many different looks in a Whisenhunt-planned offense. Despite this, I expect them to struggle a bit acclimating, until #1 WR’s & RB’s emerge to help the talented Locker.

I think Andy Reid has his group start well as they did last year, doing more than enough to beat the visiting Titans.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: KC

Score: 30-20

NE @ MIA (+5)

If you believe in the simple rule of spreads, namely that a home team automatically receives 3 points, then Miami is in for a very long game. The Dolphins have all the makings of a mediocre team; an overpaid and underachieving WR (Mike Wallace) and loads of potential in RB Lamar Miller and QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace, known for his downfield speed (and running his mouth), should stick to the former, which he failed all too often to do last year, only getting into the end zone 5 times. With a better than average defense, Miami will likely play around 500 all year. Here, I just don’t see them being strong enough on either side of the ball to really challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots.

I hate the Patriots. I won’t let it cloud my judgment, but I really don’t like them. Having gone to college in New England, the only thing worse than listening to a Patriots fan during football season (they won the Super Bowl 3 out of my 4 years there), perhaps is listening to a Red Sox fan talk about anything.  Here is a simple prediction. The number of points scored per game this season will be directly related to Rob Gronkowski’s health. Talk about RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley or WR’s Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, as far as I’m concerned, let them all stay on the line blocking. If Gronk is healthy, they can put up 35 points/game, easily. Now, if he isn’t 100%, then their strong defense will look to keep them in games. 

Here, against this Dolphins team, half a Gronk should suffice. I’ll take the Patriots by a lot.

Spread: NE

Straight Up: NE

Score: 38-18

OAK @ NYJ (-5.5)

The New York Jets enter the season with nearly identical questions to the start of the 2013 campaign. Will Rex Ryan survive as the coach? Is Geno Smith the QB of the future? If Geno starts making the throw can anyone catch the ball? I think the answer is categorically, no. Ryan has gotten along for far too long on bravado without any true results. His offensive teams are like football’s version of the DH – just collect a paycheck and die out. Defensively, we know he can coach and his players happily buy into his system. Too bad their enthusiasm can’t make the offense synch up. Smith, much like last year, stands to struggle while he tries to find a reliable offensive target. Newcomer Eric Decker should be a solid addition at WR to a group that surely needs standout. Unfortunately, for Decker, Peyton Manning with a vertebrae injury, throwing lefty from his hospital bed, is probably more reliable than Smith. Rookie TE Jase Amaro might one day be Smith’s go-to, but who knows though if he develops soon enough for Smith to still be starting. Knowing that rookie QB Derek Carr will get the start for Oakland, I look forward to seeing Ryan blitz early and often, particularly with his new rookie safety, Calvin Pryor.

Aside from Carr and heralded first round draft pick, Khaleel Mack at LB, the Raiders field a team of players beyond their prime. They re-signed the oft-injured, but consistently disappointing Darren McFadden to split reps with Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD, who pretty much wasted a career playing for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, now looks to rejuvenate himself in Oakland. I just don’t see it ending well. I think Carr will show flashes of potential, but overall, the Raiders are just not that good. Against the Jets, much like the remainder of the season, they’ll play close enough to keep it exciting for 3 quarters, only to lose it all in the end.

I like the Jets to win, but the Raiders to cover. Take the points.

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 20-17

JAC @ PHI (-10)

This is really a tale of two teams: Philadelphia is a score now and ask questions later type team and Jacksonville just stinks. Eagles coach Brian Kelly is known as somewhat of an offensive guru, but if it were me, I’d only need one play – draw to LeSean McCoy. Until any team proves that they can stop him regularly (which none thus far have been able to do), just feed him the ball as much as possible. If, on occasion, he needs a rest, Eagles fans can take comfort in the fact that QB Nick Foles has developed into a reliable passer, oh and the Eagles also have possibly the fastest man in football now in Darren Sproles. Many questions remain on the defensive end, however, Philadelphia looks to outscore nearly everyone they play this year, particularly in a weakened NFC East.

Good thing that first year head coach Gus Bradley is a defense-first type; his defense will be on the field a lot this year. They added a slew of veterans on defense (mostly guys no one has ever heard of) to compliment LB Paul Posluszny, who has looked like the real leader of the defense group. For all the defensive talk, though, all eyes will be on the offense. The Jags went out and spent their first round draft pick on QB Blake Bortles, a highly scrutinized choice, that looks, thus far, to have been a great long-term decision. Current starter Chad Henne is merely there as a placeholder, just waiting for the loyal fans to clamor enough for Bradley to pull the hook on him. I give them six weeks before Bortles is starting at home in a possible rookie vs. rookie matchup against the Browns and Johnny Manziel.

I am always wary of double-digit spreads, but until the Jags show they can stop anyone, I see a lot of lopsided losses. The Eagles, as we know, have the potential to score loads of points, with the only real opponent being the clock running out of time. I’m taking the Eagles.

Spread: PHI

Straight Up: PHI

Score: 41-10