Points Will Flow as Teams Find Rhythm

I think there will be some high scoring games this week and wouldn't be surprised if about 6 teams go over the 30+ point mark.

Let's get to the games:

NE @ BUF (PK)

The Bills had a very good Week 1 and have one of the best defenses in football, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Pick erm with the Pats? I take the Pats.

Spread: NE
Straight Up: NE
Score: 21-17

HOU @ CAR (-3.5)

I think this game with be short on defense, so whoever can generate a better flow on the other end will win out. I like Houston to be the one to do so here. Take the points and the Texans for the win.

Spread: HOU
Straight Up: HOU
Score: 31-21

ARI @ CHI (+2)

I like the Bears getting points, I don't know why though. Maybe it is pity, maybe it's because I think Matt Forte is tired of losing and I see him willing Chicago to this victory.

Spread: CHI
Straight Up: CHI
Score: 23-20

SD @ CIN (-3)

The Bengals had a good Week 1 against a pretty bad Oakland team. San Diego is certainly a better opponent, but they travel East to face a fairly staunch Bengals defense. I expect this to be primarily an offensive showing, with the Bengals coming out on top. I like them to cover.

Spread: CIN
Straight Up: CIN
Score: 31-24

TEN @ CLE (+1)

I realize that the Titans played Tampa Bay last week, but really? Johnny football going to lead the Browns to the promised land? I doubt it. Taking Tennessee to cover and for the win.

Spread: TEN
Straight Up: TEN
Score: 24-17

DET @ MIN (-3)

I hope that Vikings can learn to block anyone with their offensive line, otherwise, Teddy Bridgewater won't have such a long career. Until they show me otherwise, I'll take Detroit with the points.

Spread: DET
Straight Up: DET
Score: 27-13

TB @ NO (-10)

Big spread even for the inept Tamp Bay defense. Until New Orleans blows someone out, I'll wait and take the points.

Spread: TB
Straight Up: NO
Score: 31-22

ATL @ NYG (-2.5)

I think this should actually be a good game. However, if last week is any indication, if it is close at the end, I like Atlanta. Taking the points.

Spread: ATL
Straight Up: ATL
Score: 30-27

SF @ PIT (-6.5)

Way too many points for a San Francisco team that ran all over the Vikings defense last week. Taking the points, but the Steelers for the win.

Spread: SF
Straight Up: PIT
Score: 20-17

STL @ WAS (+3)

The Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 1 and in return they only get to be 3 point favorites? I like them by a TD, at least.

Spread: STL
Straight Up: STL
Score: 24-17

MIA @ JAC (+6)

I don't think Miami is going to blow anyone out just yet. They're still working out the kinks on offense. I'll take the points.

Spread: JAC
Straight Up: MIA
Score: 23-20

BAL @ OAK (+6.5)

Whoever is playing QB for the Raiders, I still think it will be ugly. I'll take the Ravens defense for the win and their offense (although a bit inept) to cover.

Spread: BAL
Straight Up: BAL
Score: 17-10

DAL @ PHI (-4.5)

Everyone is talking about this game as if it is DeMarco Murray against the Cowboys. Judging by last week's game, Chip Kelly is more likely to platoon him with Mathews and Sproles. I like the Eagles to win, but the Cowboys to cover.

Spread: DAL
Straight Up: PHI
Score: 27-24

SEA @ GB (-3.5)

Ask the Seahawks if they are missing Cam Chancellor after this game. I like Green Bay to cover.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 31-21

NYJ @ IND (-7)

The Colts are already banged up at WR and although it looks like Cromartie isn't going to play, I still think the defense can stop them. I like the Jets to cover here. I'm not sure they can win, but they'll keep it close.

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: IND
Score: 23-20

Week 1 - Sunday Early Games

We got our football appetites wet on Thursday. One game in and we already have our first controversy. Looking forward to see what the rest of this weekend's games bring.

Let's get right to the games:

IND @ BUF (+2.5)



The Rex Ryan era starts in Buffalo. I am always skeptical when the biggest off-season acquisition is your coach. Granted, the Bills also went out and acquired RB LeSean McCoy, who by many accounts, is a shell of what he used to be in Philadelphia. Regardless, if we have learned anything about Rex Ryan's teams is that they will be very good on defense and at best, inconsistent on offense. Expect much of the same this year, with both the QB & RB positions in-flux. Poor play by either of these positions severely limits second year WR Sammy Watkins potential to accrue big numbers, as he likely will face double coverage much of the year.

On Sunday lining up against the Bills defense will be RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson. Is this a throwback Pro Bowl Team circa 2010? Nope - it's just the Colts going out and getting some very serviceable talent until all their young players are fully ready.  Both Johnson and Gore are coming off of years playing for really bad offensive teams, however, with a talent like QB Andrew Luck, they no longer have to be THE GUY and can settle into complimentary roles in a well-balanced offense.


I think this game will be close enough, but with Gore & Luck able to manage the clock in the 4th quarter, I like the Colts to keep the Bills at bay.  Colts by a FG.

Spread: IND
Straight Up: IND
Score: 20-17

GB @ CHI (+6.5)

Simply put, the Bears are not very good and the Packers are. Not much to the analysis here. Unfortunately, the Packers lost WR Jordy Nelson for the season, but have more than enough talent to put points on the board. Speaking of talent, anyone see QB Aaron Rogers on Celebrity Jeopardy? The man is versatile, that's all I'm saying.

The Bears meanwhile seem to be going through a slew of injuries, particularly to their WR core. If their starters, particularly WR Alshon Jeffrey are unable to play, this will put even more pressure on RB Matt Forte and QB Jay Cutler. Forte seems to handle pressure well, but Cutler is another story. Regardless, the Bears look like they are in for a very difficult game and and even more difficult season.

I think the Packers score early and often and will cover handily.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 35-17

KC @ HOU (-1)

This is one of those games where I'd rather watch the defenses be on the field. The Chiefs have some talent on offense with RB Jamaal Charles and newly acquired WR Jeremy Maclin. The Texans have some decent weapons on their end, however are without RB Arian Foster for the first few games of the season. Even when he returns, their offense experience some growing pains and likely won't see any consistency until at least Week 7.

We can't talk about the Houston defense without mentioning DE J.J. Watt. I don't know him personally, but there does not seem to be a more talented and humble person playing the game of football today. I hope that Houston gets smart and starts using him full-time in iron man football this season. The bromance is real. Houston improves it's defense with ultimate run stopper Vince "the human forklift" Wilfork and the hopeful healthy return of herald LB Jadeveon Clowney. Kansas City, to their own credit, has some real speed on the defensive front, particularly from DE Tamba Hali.

Defense will be key here and whoever has more takeaways should win the game. Chiefs QB Alex Smith is known for control and I think he'll keep the turnovers to a minimum. I like the Chiefs to sneak away with a close win on the road in Houston.

Spread: KC
Straight Up: KC
Score: 17-14

CAR @ JAC (+3)

This game is very important for both teams, because after about Week 8, both teams are likely going to be out of the running for a playoff spot. The biggest question for the Jaguars this year is how will second year QB Blake Bortles fair. He'll be better if they ever get TE Julius Thomas back from injury. Until then, they'll rely heavily on rookie RB T.J. Yeldon, hope Bortles can keep the interceptions to a minimum (doubtful) and hope the defense is able to keep things competitive.

Did all of the Panthers hopes at being competitive go down with WR and freakish athlete Kelvin Benjamin's season ending injury? Probably not. They were doomed from the start. QB Cam Newton has come back down to reality a bit and is now just an above-average talent, without much help by way of offensive weapons. On defense, Carolina just resigned LB Luke Kuechly, a great talent. Too bad he can't play three positions at once.

I don't see either team playing overly inspired, nor scoring much. I like the Jags at home getting points, but the Panthers getting the road victory.

Spread: JAGS
Straight Up: CAR
Score: 17-16

CLE @ NYJ (-3)

We all know about the Jets starting the season after QB Geno Smith broke his jaw earlier in training camp. So they'll start the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I think this is an improvement at the position, if only in cutting down the turnovers. Add in WR's Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and the Jets have themselves some potential to put a few points on the board.

The Browns, unfortunately, look to be the same as they have been in years past - pretty terrible. Their defense may keep them in games, but I wouldn't expect much from them by way of their offense. Browns fans may want to start paying better attention to those Saturday College Football games, because they are likely to be in the running for that #1 draft pick by the end of this season.

I think the Jets take this game easily covering the spread.

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: NYJScore: 21-10

SEA @ STL (+4)

The Rams start the year with several young RB's, most of whom are currently hurt (Tre Mason & Todd Gurley) and a brand new QB in Nick Foles. When healthy, they have the potential to put up a lot of points. Until they get up to that point, they will have to rely heavily on a defense that should be decent.

Even the casual football fan knows that the Seahawks have been one of the most successful franchises of the last few years. They are nearly unstoppable at home and still pretty good on the road. I don't see them having too much trouble with the Rams.

I like Seattle to get the road victory, but the Rams will keep it close. I'll take the points.

Spread: STL
Straight Up: SEA
Score: 23-20

MIA @ WAS (+3.5)

The RGIII-less Redskins may be almost as bad as the Browns. QB Kirk Cousins isn't bad, but he is going to need a lot of help this year. I just don't see anyone on the team stepping up.

Miami enters the season putting their winning hopes on the shoulders of QB Ryan Tannehill. Unlike Cousins in Washington, Tannehill should finally have a good supporting cast on offense. Adding Ndamukong Suh on defense should only help bolster that side of the field, assuming he can keep the stupid penalties and subsequent suspensions to a minimum. Doubtful though.

It is never good to be getting points at home, but Washington isn't favored for a reason. I like Miami to cover, winning by a touchdown.

Spread: MIA
Straight Up: MIA
Score: 31-24

And We're Back

How did everyone spend their summer? Flew by as usual amiright? So let's start off addressing the elephant at Foxborough. We all know that the collective North North East of the U.S. we know as New England held its breath for nearly the entirety of training camp. New Englanders all finally exhaled last week, creating a significant Southern zephyr, as a Judge overturned Tom Brady's potential four game ban.

Putting any biases towards Brady, the Patriots & Roger Goodell aside, my single largest complaint is the waste of judicial resources in this process. This entire affair involved, lawyers, judges, arbitrators & any number of ancillary officials. When I was a kid, if you cheated or deflated someone else's balls, you either bought them a new one or had to line up and everyone got a free throw to peg you with another ball.

Week 1 - Thursday Night Game:

PIT @ NE (-7)

New England kicks off at home.  Without any real stars at RB or WR, the loquacious Bill "no comment" Belichick looks to continue to produce offensively by committee. Of course, when you have Rob Gronkowski playing TE, your playbook really only needs to be one play, with multiple check downs inserted. On defense, New England should be decent, although noticeably absent will be fan favorite, Vince Wolfolk, who could swallow a gap almost at will. My guess is that the Patriots play a numbers game this year, not worrying too much about points given up, hoping that the offense can always score a bit more.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, rolls in with a very un-Steelers-like team. Often favored for its staunch defense ("Steel Curtain"), this year's club looks more like a baby blanket. Losing many fan favorites to retirement, this defense is so bad, that when asked about getting the defense ready, long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau reportedly said the Korean War was a cakewalk compared to coaching this group. In fact, he resigned from the Steelers in January and took an assistant coaching position with Tennessee a few months later. On offense, however, Pittsburgh has a chance to be very well balanced, maybe even explosive. The Steelers are stocked at WR, with Anotonio Brown looking to lead the league in almost every category. They'll be even better once Martavis Bryant comes back from suspension. Speaking of which, RB Le'Veon Bell will also miss a few games, but when he returns, QB Ben Roethlisberger should have the ability to finally run an excellent play-action game. Until then, just throw downfield to Brown.

Although the Steelers will likely score a lot during this year, don't expect them to be fully up to speed until around week 5, when all their weapons should return. I like the Patriots to take the home opener, with Pittsburgh covering the spread.

Spread: PIT
Straight Up: NE
Score: 27-21

Thursday Night Football (Week 4)

Can the Giants make it two in a row? If Kirk Cousins keeps playing this way, will anyone even want RGIII back as a starter? It's Thursday of week 4 and also the first day {2nd night} of Rosh Hashanah (the Jewish New Year). I think the Giants take this as an opportunity to start anew, but then again, same could be true for Washington. Who wants to be 500% coming out of the first quarter of the 2014 season? I guess we'll see.

WEEK 3 RESULTS

Spread: 7-9

Straight Up: 8-8

Thursday Night Game:

NYG @ WAS (-3.5)

The Giants finally came alive last week, playing well on all fronts. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins put up some really great numbers for Washington last week in an offensive battle against the Eagles. I still think that Philly has the best shot at winning this division outright; however, the winner of this game can carry some momentum at least aiming for 2^nd place in the division. 

If New York can continue to get their TE’s some touches, I think Eli and the Giants can eek out a win on the road. Either way, in these division games, I’d take the points, but I’m also taking the Giants in this one.

Spread: NYG

Straight Up: NYG

Score: 24-21  

49ers Stink or do They? (Week 3 Late Games)

Some good late games this week, including a rematch of last year's Super Bowl:

Too Many TO's from Kap

SF @ ARI (+2.5)

The Cardinals have been fairly unremarkable in their two wins. First barely getting by the Chargers and last week hardly having to show up against the Giants. Meanwhile, the 49ers did everything possible to give up a huge lead to the Bears, exposing many of the team's flaws (QB turnovers and a weak secondary). Lucky for the 49ers that Drew Stanton really didn't show much last week against the Giants. I think the 49ers come back strong here getting the win on the road and barely covering.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 24-20 

KC @ MIA (-4.5)

Bad news for the Chiefs, where it appears they may be without star RB Jamaal Charles, who has a high ankle sprain. The questions is, even if he played, can the Chiefs even win a game? The Dolphins had a great opener at home, then laid an egg last week in Buffalo. I'll chalk it up more to the Bills being better than everything first thought. I think this game will be close throughout, with the Dolphins getting the win. I'll take the points though.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: MIA

Score: 17-14

DEN @ SEA (-4.5)

We all know what happened the last time these teams met. This year, despite both teams showing they can still score, it is their defenses that have been a bit suspect. For all his talk about individual accolades, the Sherminator (I don't really think he calls himself this) is useful if the entire team plays well. Also, when challenged last week by the Chargers, he wasn't all that impressive. Maybe change the name - thoughts Parkman?

Thoughts Richard?

As for the Broncos, they too have not been overly impressive on the defensive end and have yet to get the ball moving well via the running game. Seahawks never lose at home and the Broncos can score in bunches. I like Seattle to win, but I'll take the points here.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-28

PIT @ CAR (-3)

Panthers are 2-0 and the Steelers appears to be inconsistent. They can't score consistently and they can't defend at all. Carolina appears to be able to do both. I'll take the Panthers on all fronts.

Spread: CAR

Straight Up: CAR

Score: 24-10

Folk for the Win?

CHI @ NYJ (-2) 

The Jets looked pretty good last week, then came out and pulled a "Jags" in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Bears looked like the comeback kids, walking all over the 49ers in the 4th quarter. What do we glean from these games? Nothing really. Inconsistency is the new normal in the NFL. I see this as a game of turnovers, with the team getting the last one connecting on a FG. I'll take the home team for the win on MNF, but I'm taking the points.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 24-23

Week 2 Late Games

Looking forward to another great weekend of football. Let's get right to the late games:

SEA @ SD (+6)

Seattle looked great against the Packers in week 1. Meanwhile, the Chargers answered the question “can you ever just be ‘whelmed’?” on offense. While not an under-whelming performance, they truly looked uninspired in their loss to the Cardinals. I can’t see them scoring more points on a much better Seahawks defense, even playing at home. Six points are a lot for a visiting team, but I like the Seahawks to cover.

Spread: SEA

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-17

STL @ TB (-4.5)

I just checked the TV listings and this game is being blocked out in both the St. Louis and Tampa local markets. I think everyone would rather watch Shawshank Redemption another time, than be subjected to this. Much like the Giants, until the Rams prove that they can score, I pretty much like any team playing them. Lovie Smith’s Bucs couldn’t pull out the victory last week against a Camless Panthers team. This week, no one really knows who will be starting at QB for the Rams, but really, does it matter? Since I don’t think either team is likely to score that much, I’ll take the Rams to cover (moral victory anyone?), but I like TB to win. 

Spread: STL

Straight Up: TB

Score: 13-10

KC @ DEN (-13)

These two teams are heading quickly in two very different directions. The Chiefs lost two of their anchors on defense last week for the season (Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson). This would be bad enough if they also can't seem to figure out a way to score. Enter Peyton Manning and the Broncos and this will always make for a double digit spread. Look for Manning, who is so adept and exposing other team's weaknesses, to do just that on Sunday. I don't see this game being very close, my only question is if the Broncos ease up on the gas enough to let the Chiefs hang around. This week, I think they learn their lesson and put the game far out of reach.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: DEN

Score: 38-13

NYJ @ GB (-8.5)

Green Bay had a tough go having to start their season in Seattle. Although the Jets are certainly a lesser opponent than the Seahawks, the Packers may have to try to win without Eddie Lacy. If that is the case, expect a heavy dose of Rodgers to any number of his WR's (particularly Cobb & Nelson). I think the Jets will stick around most of the game, but in the end, Rodgers will always have one last TD in his back pocket. Jets to cover, but Packers for the win. 

Spread: NYJ

Straight Up: GB

Score: 27-20 

HOU @ OAK (+3)

I feel for Derek Carr. He makes his first career start against a pretty good Jets defense only to go make his home debut against the Texans and J.J. Watt. Oh yeah - he also plays for the Raiders. Neither of these teams looked overly impressive on offense, so I think this game will be close the whole way. I think the Texans are better and the Raiders haven't figured out just yet how to win close games. Texans to win, but I'll take the points with the home Raiders.   

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: HOU

Score: 19-17 

CHI @ SF (-7)

The Bears and 49ers started their seasons in almost polar opposite fashion; the former by a FG in OT, the latter taking the lead on their team's first defensive possession and never looking back. Despite the off the field troubles for the 49ers, they seem to be one of the better balanced teams in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, we know Chicago has made a marked change towards the offensive end. Last week, the 49ers pretty much scored at will - I expect much of the same against the Bears. The only question is how many points their defense will let up. In the end, I think they do enough to cover.  

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 31-21 

PHI @ IND (-3)

The Eagles got a scare last week from the Jags, proving that they are a team will vulnerabilities. That's the good news (for all non Eagles fans). The bad, they also proved that they could score 34 unanswered points in one half. The Colts, meanwhile, went on the road and nearly came back on the Broncos, proving that they too can score in bulk (17 points in the second half). I don't see either defense being too effective in this game, so I think it will come down to clock management. I like Andrew Luck's ability to do so, particularly at home and think the Colts do enough win and cover.

Spread: IND

Straight Up: IND

Score: 36-31 

Back to the Games (Week 2)

Thinking about football really does help pass the time. Before you know it, you forget about the brutal Monday night loss, only to be reminded that you are only a few days away from your team’s next crushing defeat. Not a great start to the season on the prediction front, but much like my Giants (I hope), I’m a closer.

WEEK 1 RESULTS

Spread: 7-9

Straight Up: 9-7

Let’s get right to the games:

PIT @ BAL (-3)

After the week they’ve had, the Ravens could really use a good win. I just don’t see it happening. Both Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisgerger through for about 350 yards and 1 TD last week, the former though doing it on 62 pass attempts.  Flacco’s arm, like a major league pitcher, cannot withstand this all season. I like the Steelers to continue the balanced attack (led by Le’Veon “can’t suspend me now” Bell) and pull out the victory against their conference rival. 

Spread: PIT

Straight Up: PIT

Score: 24-17

MIA @ BUF (-0.5)

After last week’s games, this may actually prove to be one of the better week 2 matchups. Buffalo comes off of a nice OT win on the road in Chicago and also learned that this week that they would be sold to a group led by the current Buffalo Sabres owner, rather than fall into the hands of Jon Bon Jovi’s group. Well Buffalo, you’re halfway there, but far from getting back to Super Bowl territory. Miami comes off of a fairly dominant performance at home, beating the Patriots by 13. I think the difference in this game comes down to the RB’s. Whichever team has more trouble stopping the run will lose out. I think the duo of Moreno & Miller (Miami’s M&Ms?) will be too much for the Bills defense. Dolphins start the season 2-0. 

Spread: MIA

Straight Up: MIA

Score: 30-24

DET @ CAR (-2.5)

The Panthers pulled out a surprising victory last week without Cam Newton. Regardless of whether Newton plays or not this week, the Panthers secondary will have their hands full with Calvin Johnson. Even if they choose to double cover him with a roaming safety, that will leave plenty of options for Mathew Stafford on his check downs (any choice of three huge TE’s, RB Reggie Bush as well as WR Golden Tate). The Lions Achilles heel, as mentioned last week, is their lack of discipline on defense.  I expect them to continue to take unnecessary penalties, which will certainly hurt them in close games during this season. I just expect their proficient offense to offset most of these mistakes. I like the Lions by a lot.

Spread: DET

Straight Up: DET

Score: 35-20

ATL @ CIN (-5.5)

Matt Ryan looked like he was playing the Madden version of himself last weekend, putting up console worthy stats. Although the Bengals might have a better defense than the Saints, if Ryan is in the zone again, watch out. Cincinnati will also need more out of their offense aside from A.J. Green. Look for them to try and get Giovani Bernard a bit more involved. Either way, if this becomes a shootout, I like the Falcons by a TD.

Spread: ATL

Straight Up: ATL

Score: 31-24

NO @ CLE (+6)

Both these teams lost last week at the last possible second on game ending FG’s. The Browns, for the record, has a nice comeback turn up just short, while the Saints let the game slip out of their hands against the Falcons. Cleveland really is getting no respect at home getting six points and until further notice probably won’t. I expect safety Donte Whitner (12 tackles last week), to be extremely busy as Drew Brees attempt to pick apart the Browns secondary. In the end, I think the Saints learn to not squander a lead; putting the points on early and often and putting the game out of reach for the comeback Browns.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 38-17

NE @ MIN (+3)

The Patriots had a disappointing loss on the road in Miami. Meanwhile, the Vikings went on the road and beat up an already decimated Rams group, knocking out 8^th string QB Shaun Hill in the process. The Vikings looked good on offense and their defense is still waiting to play against a first string offense. I’m not yet confident that the Patriots are that team. Vikings, coming off a 28 point win, getting points at home? I’ll take it. It also is fun to think of the Patriots starting 0-2.

Spread: MIN

Straight Up: MIN

Score: 27-24

ARI @ NYG (-2)

I hate this game for so many reasons, the least of which means that I think the Giants will start the season with their 2^nd loss. If anyone has been reading for the last week or so (I hope you’re out there), you’ll know I love the Giants, but don’t have high hopes for them at all. If they play again like they did in Detroit, they may have the #1 draft pick locked up before week 10. The Cardinals, on the other hand, played well enough to win, particularly in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game. Carson Palmer looked reminiscent of a college QB, spreading the ball across multiple receivers and even scrambling for yardage on several plays. Until the Giants prove they can score at all, I like the odds of any team playing them. Cardinals by a FG.

Spread: ARI

Straight Up: ARI

Score: 13-10

DAL @ TEN (-3.5)

Jake Locker and the Titans went into KC and just dominated them in every facet of the game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys couldn’t have looked worse, unless they had gone up against the Giants. Tony Romo looked like his old self, making poor throws and incurring way too many turnovers. When you have a defense that can hold its own, sometimes you can survive, but when you have one of the worst professional defense’s I have ever seen, then you won’t win too many games. I like the Titans to dominate on offense, until the Cowboys prove they can stop anyone at all.  

Spread: TEN

Straight Up: TEN

Score: 27-17

JAC @ WAS (-6)

If I’m Gus Bradley, I am getting the mind erase thing from Men in Black, using it and telling them that they are about to start the second half up 17-0. The Jaguars hit the Eagles head on during the first half of last week’s game, only to see their lead, and ultimately, the game, disappear from their clenches. Good news for the Jags; they play a Washington team which struggled to score against a very good Texans defense. They need more out of every one of their offensive weapons, particularly RGIII, who as mentioned previously, I’m not sold on as being the future of their team. The Jags forced a lot of fumbles last week and Washington is susceptible to TO’s. I like the game to be close, with the Jags pulling out a win in the end, marking Coach Bradley’s first win for his new team.

Spread: JAC

Straight Up: JAC

Score: 24-21

Shut Up & Play Ball

What other place but in professional sports can you not do your job, blame someone else for your failure and still are able to make millions? Maybe Wall Street...

The New York Giants looked truly terrible on Monday night. Offensively, they couldn't have been less efficient.  WR Victor Cruz has a solution - get him the ball. I personally hate when players do this for several reasons:

• First, it makes you the center of attention when we really the team winning games needs to be the focus. 
• Secondly, it is not how often you get the ball, but what you do with it when you actually get the opportunity. 
• Third, I can't imagine outwardly requesting more opportunities endears yourself to your QB or coaches.

On Monday, Cruz had two catches for 24 yards. He also was targeted 6 times with multiple dropped passes. A true leader makes the most of all opportunities (I'm talking to you Larry Fitzgerald, who had to wait for the last possible minute in Monday's game to garner a reception, but kept the game winning drive alive as a result).

As a Giants fan, I want more Fitzgeralds and less Cruz-types. I have no idea what goes on in the locker room and in practice, but when you squander 4 targets, then that is on everyone. If you want more targets Victor, then do more with the opportunities you have. Otherwise, just shut up and play ball.

Monday Games

This is the post I was avoiding having to write all weekend.  The one where I finally admit that the Giants offensive woes in the preseason truly will translate to a lack of success thought this 2014 NFL season. Then the Dolphins went out and shocked the Patriots, giving me at least, a glimmer of hope that the Giants may not be as bad as I think them to be.

Let's get to Monday night's games:

NYG @ DET (-5.5)

Detroit enters the season with a new head coach - Jim Caldwell.  Caldwell inherits a team with some sizable talent on offense (QB Matt Stafford, perhaps the league's best WR, Calvin Johnson as well as a nice RB duo of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell) and potential on defense. They also went out and drafter highly touted TE, Eric Ebron, who should help take the pressure off both Johnson and Stafford. I expect this year to be much like the previous ones - the Lions should score a lot and give up a lot of points. Due to Stafford's tendency for turnovers and their defense's lack of discipline, they can't be trusted in close games.

Tom Coughlin will age 10 years during this NFL season. Everyone will be discussing whether QB Eli Manning can grasp the new offensive scheme, something which thus far, looks to have escaped him. Even if he does, the Giants are really lacking offensive weapons. RB Rashard Jennings is solid, but I'm not sold on him being and every play, all-purpose back. Rookie RB Andrew Williams should spell Jennings a bit, but may not be enough coming out of the backfield. Everyone knows that WR Victor Cruz is the Giants #1, 2 & 3, option, leaving WR Rueben Randle with all the potential for a fine season - assuming the much maligned offensive line gives Manning enough time to throw. Manning has always been better with a solid receiving TE, but the Giants have lacked such an option for several years now. The defense (improved on paper due to some splashy off season signings), may have to work double time just to offset the lack of scoring that should come out of this anemic offense. 

It pains me to say, but until the Giants prove they can score, I can't trust them to cover, particularly on the road.

Spread: DET

Straight Up: DET

Score: 24-10

SD @ ARI (-3)

Much of Arizona's success this season will be determined by their running game. RB Andre Ellington has the potential for a 1,000+ yards - but he might not play tonight. Any absence there should cause QB Carson Palmer to rely heavily on WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Fitzgerald, who is beyond his best years is still a viable threat with stick 'em for hands and Floyd has the potential to be very good. On defense, the Cardinals should be good, particularly with a strong secondary, which looks to be one of the top in the league. It remains to be seen, however, if all the pieces can come together to equal wins.

San Diego has a team that could easily win or lose 10 games.  I think everything depends on the number of team turnovers, especially in the hands of QB Phillip Rivers. Rivers has some decent weapons on offense including, RB's Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, WR's Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown as well as TE Antonio Gates, who despite injuries and age, can still go up for the "jump ball" when necessary. On defense, much like the Cardinals, there are lots of questions, which can only be answered in-game. 

Tonight, I like San Diego to steal the home opener from the Cardinals.

Spread: SD

Straight Up: SD

Score: 27-24

Sundays Are For Couches

If you love football like I do, then your home couch or chair probably gets a lot of use on Sundays. I have always loved watching these games. As a kid, my dad and I would watch whatever game was on at 1 PM (usually the Giants or Jets), then put on the 4 PM game (usually taking a quick power nap during if we didn't care about the results. Now, even my wife Jen has created a Sunday tradition, which usually entails her cursing out the bulk of her fantasy teams. You gotta love Sundays.

Let's get right to the games:

CLE @ PIT (-6.5)

Quick question. What number will be higher this year? The number of offensive TD’s by the Browns or cars sold by Josh Gordon? In all seriousness, the highly talented WR has some issues going on and needs to be away from football (and probably Cleveland as a whole) for a while. The publicity stunt having him work at a local dealership is just that – jury is out on who it benefits, if anyone. As for the QB situation, coach Mike Pettine has come forward saying that while Brian Hoyer is the starter, expect to see Johnny Manziel see some action as well. Who cares who is throwing if they have no one to receive it?

Pittsburgh enters the game under a cloud (bad pun?) of uncertainty. It seems like every year we are discussing how offensively, Pittsburgh has drawn up new schemes to make them more of a downfield throwing team, as opposed to their traditional, smashmouth football. That never happens. WR Antonio Brown is a legitimate deep ball threat and I look forward to QB Ben Roethlisberger finding him several times this game (and most of the year) in the end zone. On defense, watch out for first round pick, LB Ryan Shazier who should be playing like a veteran by the third quarter.

I don’t have high hopes for the Browns, but am not sold on the Steelers ability to score just yet. I like PIT to win at home, but I’m taking the points.

Spread: CLE

Straight Up: PIT

Score: 17-13

MIN @ STL (-3.5)

I received a call from my agent earlier this week asking me if I wanted to try out for the open Rams QB position. I told him I would, but I really enjoy my menially paying job instead. You have to feel really bad for injured QB Sam Bradford and the Rams as a whole. Jeff Fisher’s team will look to journeyman Shaun Hill to lead the offense. I doubt he will be the starter by the end of the year. Hill will need a lot of help from particularly RB Zak Stacy. The Rams have a more than serviceable defense, which should help the game close.

Minnesota enters the season with some confidence, particularly on offense. Any team with RB Adrian Peterson (assuming he is fully healthy) has a chance to win a lot of games. QB Matt Cassel will start, while first round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater will watch and learn and most certainly be ready to play, when and if necessary. The Vikings also have a new potential breakout player in WR Cordarrelle Patterson. The Vikings defense certainly has some holes, but I’m just not sure if the Rams will be able to expose them.

I like MIN to cover on the road.

Spread: MIN

Straight Up: MIN

Score:  27-22

CAR @ TB (-1)

Lovie Smith has reason to be excited for his new team in Tampa. They went out and signed a familiar face in reliable QB Josh McCown. RB Doug Martin and several good WR’s including Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, should be able to put points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect (better with the acquisition of Logan Matkins from the Patriots) and we all know this can have a crippling effect on offensive efficiency.

No Newton, no win

For Ron Rivera’s Panthers, this is a fairly simple game. Without a healthy Cam Newton, this is likely a loss. It sounds like Newton won’t play and if he does, will certainly not be 100%. Without Newton, the Panthers will really struggle. I think rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin will be good, eventually, but needs time to mature. Defensively it remains to be seen if their secondary is strong enough. Look for McCown to expose this during the game.

I like Lovie Smith’s debut to be a successful one in Tampa. A Newtonless Panthers team just doesn’t have enough to stick with the home Bucs.

Spread: TB

Straight up: TB

Score: 20-14

IND @ DEN (-7.5)

I expect Denver to average about 35 points a game this year. Even without WR Wes Welker (suspension, injuries, etc…) QB Peyton Manning has plenty of options, particularly with WR Demaryius Thomas as well as TE Julius Thomas. With an offense like this, who cares about their defense, which by the way, is quite good.

The Indianapolis Colts should have a fine year. They just won’t win today on the road in Denver. QB Andrew Luck has a solid group of offensive weapons. The main question is at RB where no one is certain if Trent Richardson can be a dominant force once again and if he can’t, then if often injured Ahmad Bradshaw can step it up and play like he did back with the Giants. Father time is often cruel to football players, particularly the running backs. I just don’t see it happening.

I like DEN at home in a shootout.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: DEN

Score: 40-23

24 Hours to Kickoff

Week 1 around here, much like the NFL season, is just about working out the finer points. I hope everyone gets a chance to at least watch a few college football games today. As I tell my wife Jen (who has now exceeded me in number of fantasy NFL leagues in which she participates), you need to pay some attention to these players - after all, you'll be drafting some next year. 

Here we go with some more Week 1 NFL picks:

TEN @ KC (-3.5)

Remember when the Chiefs won 9 straight games to start the 2013 season? You don’t? That’s because everyone remembers the last 8 (including the playoffs) where they went 2-6. In a very much “what have you done for me lately?” situation, the Chiefs simply need to play like the team from the first half of last year or else they may find themselves very much forgotten again – even by their own fans: 

Steady-handed QB Alex Smith hopes he can discover a new favorite target, now that they will be without Dwayne Bowe (suspension). I hear former TE great, Tony Gonzalez is available. By default or necessity, leave it to all-purpose RB Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs once again in nearly every category; just don’t ask him to move any furniture during the bye week.

The Tennessee Titans face a world of questions to start the season. Will Jake Locker remain healthy? (Answer: not likely). Will new coach Kent Whisenhunt be able to squeeze as much offensive talent as he has in previous stints in Pittsburgh and Arizona? (Answer: definitely). Will anyone step up in the running game to makes us reminisce about the days when Chris Johnson was actually a threat? (Answer: maybe rookie Bishop Sankey…in a few years). Look for the big-splash (by Tennessee standards) signee, Dexter McCluster, try to break out against his former team. McCluster, primarily used as a return man (Pro Bowler), should be given many different looks in a Whisenhunt-planned offense. Despite this, I expect them to struggle a bit acclimating, until #1 WR’s & RB’s emerge to help the talented Locker.

I think Andy Reid has his group start well as they did last year, doing more than enough to beat the visiting Titans.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: KC

Score: 30-20

NE @ MIA (+5)

If you believe in the simple rule of spreads, namely that a home team automatically receives 3 points, then Miami is in for a very long game. The Dolphins have all the makings of a mediocre team; an overpaid and underachieving WR (Mike Wallace) and loads of potential in RB Lamar Miller and QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace, known for his downfield speed (and running his mouth), should stick to the former, which he failed all too often to do last year, only getting into the end zone 5 times. With a better than average defense, Miami will likely play around 500 all year. Here, I just don’t see them being strong enough on either side of the ball to really challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots.

I hate the Patriots. I won’t let it cloud my judgment, but I really don’t like them. Having gone to college in New England, the only thing worse than listening to a Patriots fan during football season (they won the Super Bowl 3 out of my 4 years there), perhaps is listening to a Red Sox fan talk about anything.  Here is a simple prediction. The number of points scored per game this season will be directly related to Rob Gronkowski’s health. Talk about RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley or WR’s Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, as far as I’m concerned, let them all stay on the line blocking. If Gronk is healthy, they can put up 35 points/game, easily. Now, if he isn’t 100%, then their strong defense will look to keep them in games. 

Here, against this Dolphins team, half a Gronk should suffice. I’ll take the Patriots by a lot.

Spread: NE

Straight Up: NE

Score: 38-18

OAK @ NYJ (-5.5)

The New York Jets enter the season with nearly identical questions to the start of the 2013 campaign. Will Rex Ryan survive as the coach? Is Geno Smith the QB of the future? If Geno starts making the throw can anyone catch the ball? I think the answer is categorically, no. Ryan has gotten along for far too long on bravado without any true results. His offensive teams are like football’s version of the DH – just collect a paycheck and die out. Defensively, we know he can coach and his players happily buy into his system. Too bad their enthusiasm can’t make the offense synch up. Smith, much like last year, stands to struggle while he tries to find a reliable offensive target. Newcomer Eric Decker should be a solid addition at WR to a group that surely needs standout. Unfortunately, for Decker, Peyton Manning with a vertebrae injury, throwing lefty from his hospital bed, is probably more reliable than Smith. Rookie TE Jase Amaro might one day be Smith’s go-to, but who knows though if he develops soon enough for Smith to still be starting. Knowing that rookie QB Derek Carr will get the start for Oakland, I look forward to seeing Ryan blitz early and often, particularly with his new rookie safety, Calvin Pryor.

Aside from Carr and heralded first round draft pick, Khaleel Mack at LB, the Raiders field a team of players beyond their prime. They re-signed the oft-injured, but consistently disappointing Darren McFadden to split reps with Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD, who pretty much wasted a career playing for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, now looks to rejuvenate himself in Oakland. I just don’t see it ending well. I think Carr will show flashes of potential, but overall, the Raiders are just not that good. Against the Jets, much like the remainder of the season, they’ll play close enough to keep it exciting for 3 quarters, only to lose it all in the end.

I like the Jets to win, but the Raiders to cover. Take the points.

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 20-17

JAC @ PHI (-10)

This is really a tale of two teams: Philadelphia is a score now and ask questions later type team and Jacksonville just stinks. Eagles coach Brian Kelly is known as somewhat of an offensive guru, but if it were me, I’d only need one play – draw to LeSean McCoy. Until any team proves that they can stop him regularly (which none thus far have been able to do), just feed him the ball as much as possible. If, on occasion, he needs a rest, Eagles fans can take comfort in the fact that QB Nick Foles has developed into a reliable passer, oh and the Eagles also have possibly the fastest man in football now in Darren Sproles. Many questions remain on the defensive end, however, Philadelphia looks to outscore nearly everyone they play this year, particularly in a weakened NFC East.

Good thing that first year head coach Gus Bradley is a defense-first type; his defense will be on the field a lot this year. They added a slew of veterans on defense (mostly guys no one has ever heard of) to compliment LB Paul Posluszny, who has looked like the real leader of the defense group. For all the defensive talk, though, all eyes will be on the offense. The Jags went out and spent their first round draft pick on QB Blake Bortles, a highly scrutinized choice, that looks, thus far, to have been a great long-term decision. Current starter Chad Henne is merely there as a placeholder, just waiting for the loyal fans to clamor enough for Bradley to pull the hook on him. I give them six weeks before Bortles is starting at home in a possible rookie vs. rookie matchup against the Browns and Johnny Manziel.

I am always wary of double-digit spreads, but until the Jags show they can stop anyone, I see a lot of lopsided losses. The Eagles, as we know, have the potential to score loads of points, with the only real opponent being the clock running out of time. I’m taking the Eagles.

Spread: PHI

Straight Up: PHI

Score: 41-10