Sunday, October 12, 2014

Week 6 - a lot of home teams will lose

Taking a bit of a vacation this week, so we'll just do some quick hitters:

NE @ BUF (+3)
Spread: NE
Straight Up: NE
Score: 27-17

CAR @ CIN (-7)
Spread: CAR
Straight Up: CIN
Score: 24-21

PIT @ CLE (-2)
Spread: CLE
Straight Up: CLE
Score: 27-24

GB @ MIA (+3)
Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 33-14

DET @ MIN (+1.5)
Spread: MIN
Straight Up: MIN
Score: 24-21

DEN @ NYJ (+9)
Spread: DEN
Straight Up: DEN
Score: 38-13

BAL @ TB (+3)
Spread: TB
Straight Up: TB
Score: 23-21

JAC @ TEN (-6)
Spread: JAC
Straight Up: TEN
Score: 17-14

SD @ OAK (+7)
Spread: SD
Straight Up: SD
Score: 35-20

CHI @ ATL (-3)
Spread: ATL
Straight Up: ATL
Score: 32-27

WAS @ ARI (-3.5)
Spread: ARI
Straight Up: ARI
Score: 28-18

DAL @ SEA (-8)
Spread: DAL
Straight Up: SEA
Score: 27-23

NYG @ PHI (-2.5)
Spread: NYG
Straight Up: NYG
Score: 27-20

SF @ STL (+3)
Spread: SF
Straight Up: SF
Score: 23-17

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Texans Need Points to Win Games

IND @ HOU (2.5)

Texans can't score, Colts can. This scenario will always lead to a loss for Houston. Arian Foster has awoken slightly for the Texans, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled to find his top WR's. I bet Andre Johnson (0 TD's) is really regretting ever ending his holdout. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck and his offense just keeps rolling along. I like Houston's defense, but not more than Indy's offense. I'll take the Colts.

Spread: IND
Straight Up: IND
Score: 27-17

Andre - the end zone is that way

Monday, October 6, 2014

Monday Download (Week 5)

Another week down and just like that we went from two undefeated teams, to seven (if Seattle wins tonight, which I think they will) one-loss teams. Of all those, I still can't figure out how the Cowboys have found themselves in that bunch, particularly considering their less than stellar defense.  

Thursday reminded us that the Packers are still pretty good as long as they have Aaron Rodgers playing. We also learned that maybe Teddy is more valuable to the Vikings than anyone could have imagined.

Look at Greg Olsen torching his old team for two touchdowns and then win for Carolina. Too many turnovers for Cutler and the Bears does them in again.

Dez Bryant saves the day again for the Cowboys with a huge catch. Houston was unable to capitalize on Arian Foster's nice day (156 yards rushing, 2 TD's).

The Lions are one of the poorer 3-2 teams I have seen recently. Nice come from behind win for Kyle Orton and the Bills.

Three straight wins for Luck and the Colts. Baltimore needs more overall offensive production.

Pittsburgh is just good enough to beat Jacksonville, but that does not making them much better than the lowly Jags. Does Bortles have to pass the ball to himself to try and get a win for Jacksonville?

The Saints managed a win in OT, but again showed how beatable they truly are. Good for the Bucs for finally learning to play for four quarters - just wasn't enough yesterday.

It was rookie day for the Giants as both RB Andre Williams and WR Odell Beckham Jr. scored TD's in their win. Atlanta is going to need some help on their offensive line if they have any hope of wining in the long run this year.

The Eagles are vulnerable on the defensive end, but are still managing to win at all costs. Austin Davis really keeps the Rams in these games - they could string together some wins down the line.

The Browns are just dangerous enough to knock of some playoff bound teams towards the end of this season. The Titans are way better with Jake Locker, but still not that good.

Arizona has some QB issues and hence, scoring issues. Congrats to Peyton Manning and Demaryius who both set career marks of their own in the win for the Broncos.

San Diego looks very good as of late. Geno Smith is a problem, not THE problem though for the Jets.

The 49ers are winning at home, but I still think lacking the dominance expected of them. Alex Smith couldn't do enough to steal the win for the Chiefs against his old team.

The Patriots ran all over the Bengals defense in handing Cincy their first defeat. Bengals looked outplayed all night - I'll chalk it up to bye week rustiness.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Quick Hits: Week 5

Week 5 late games:

ARI @ DEN (-7)

Spread: DEN
Straight Up: DEN
Score: 33-17

NYJ @ SD (-7)

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: SD
Score: 24-18

KC @ SF (-7.5)

Spread: KC
Straight Up: SF
Score: 27-24

CIN @ NE (-3)

Spread: CIN
Straight Up: CIN
Score: 35-17

SEA @ WAS (+7.5)

Spread: WAS
Straight Up: SEA
Score: 21-17

Friday, October 3, 2014

Help Wanted on Carolina's D-line

The late games really hurt us last week. Thank you consistency (Saints, Eagles & Patriots). 

Spread: 6-6
Straight Up: 5-7

Let's get right to the games:

CHI @ CAR (-3)
The Panthers lost another defensive end to suspension this week. At this attrition rate, Carolina will need to score a lot in order to offset such losses, which they have not been doing (29 points scored vs. 75 points given up in the last two games). Enter Chicago, inconsistent at best. If you believe in logic patterns (L, W, W, L) would make for "W" time for the Bears. I'll take them and the points.

Spread: CHI
Straight Up: CHI
Score: 24-17

CLE @ TEN (-2)

The Browns have played some close games this season. The Titans have not (1 blowout win, followed by three huge losses). If we see Jake Locker this week (they say he'll play), I'd expect the game to be close. I'm thinking he doesn't play and the Browns take advantage. Take the points and the visitors.

Spread: CLE
Straight Up: CLE
Score: 27-24 

STL @ PHI (-7)

Tough loss last week for the Eagles on the road. Luckily, the Rams are coming to town. I think the Eagles win by 20+.

Spread: PHI
Straight Up: PHI
Score: 38-17

ATL @ NYG (-4)

The Falcons looked pretty atrocious last week, even needing to put a TE on the offensive line (not as a temporary blocker either). Eli Manning, meanwhile, has started to find quite a rhythm (partiuclalry with his TE's) and Rashad Jennings is running like the power back he can be. Until either team shows signs of turning the other way, I'll stick with the Giants. 

Spread: NYG
Straight Up: NYG
Score: 35-24

TB @ NO (-11)

To me, the Saints might be one of the most disappointing teams of the season, thus far. Picking them to cover a double digit spread when they have proven not to reliable on defense and lacked the usual fire on the offensive end is just foolish. Granted, the Bucs barely carved out a their first win last week in Pittsburgh. Do I spell winning streak for Mike Glennon? No, but I do think it will be a more competitive game. Take the points and the home team.

Spread: TB
Straight Up: NO
Score: 24-20

HOU @ DAL (-4)

DeMarco Murray has rushed for 100+ yards every game this year. Can the Texans be the first team to hold him under? I'm not certain. I do think though, that they can keep the Cowboys offense in check. Tony Rom, as we all know, is prone to turnovers and the Texans are an ideal team to take advantage. The Texans lack explosiveness on the offensive end, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should take advantage of a weak Dallas defense and expose them. 3 TD game for Andrew Johnson anyone? In the end, I like Dallas to win, but not to cover.

Spread: HOU
Straight Up: DAL
Score: 27-24

BUF @ DET (-7)

Poor Bills. They started strong and now they're just barely competitive. Let's see what Kyle Orton can do with them, getting the start this week. I like his experience coupled with the Lions lack of discipline, to at least keep the game close; not enough to win. Take the points, but Detroit for the victory.

Spread: BUF
Straight Up: DET
Score: 27-21

BAL @ IND (-3.5)

Andrew Luck and the Colts have been in an offensive groove lately. Then again, so have Steve Smith and the Ravens. I'll take Luck's hot hand any day. 

Spread: IND
Straight Up: IND
Score: 33-24

PIT @ JAC (+6.5)

Good news for the Jags; if last week is any indication, Pittsburgh is vulnerable during the last few minutes of the game. Bad news is that they have to play hard enough to keep it close through four quarters, not two. I think Borttles can do it if he keeps the turnovers to a minimum. I'll take the points, but the Steelers for the win.

Spread: JAC
Straight Up: PIT
Score: 21-17

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Save Teddy

The Vikings have stated that they will make a game time decision on whether or not to play Teddy Bridgewater (from here on out, just Teddy) tonight. To me, that reads that Christian Ponder will be starting. Even if it is close, please Vikings, SAVE TEDDY, don't play him if he really isn't ready. A division game is always important, but don't risk your long-term solution at QB for a possible win.

MIN @ GB (-9.5)

If Teddy plays, I would take the points. If he doesn't, which I think will be the case, I think Ponder has about 4 turnovers, which should translate into some points for the Packers. Either way I like the Pack to win and in this case, probably cover.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 31-21