Week 1 Picks (some early games)

First game of the year surprised me a bit (I can't be the only one right?). Seattle looked about as good as expected, but it was Green Bay that looked surprisingly flat. An Eddie Lacy concussion, bad penalties and suspect defense play all have the makings of a long season for the Packers.  More to come in the Monday Download. 

Let's get right to the next set of games.

NO @ ATL (+3)

Several years ago, these games used to be a lot closer. Now, each team appears to be heading in different directions. New Orleans, already an explosive offense, went out and drafted speedy WR Brandin Cooks, only furthering their depth there. The Saints do have some questions at the RB position with no one definitely taking charge. Mark Ingram will likely start as the #1 back, but who finishes the season as the leading rusher is anybody’s best guess. Drew Brees, however, should be just fine throwing to any number of his weapons, including Jimmy “don’tcall me TE” Graham.

Atlanta, similar to the Saints, has nice depth for their wide receivers and should be just fine on that front, assuming Julio Jones stays healthy this year. Losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement won't help them, but may create some more opportunities for other players like Harry Douglas (full disclosure, I’m a very big Louisville Cardinals fan). The Falcons, much like the Saints, have a lot of questions at the RB position. Starter Steven Jackson, 31, is old by NFL standards and I can’t see him playing a full schedule this year. Until Jackson proves that he can help open up some gaps for the Falcons, I expect Rob Ryan to blitz early and often with his Saints’ defense. Matt Ryan will have his hands full.

New Orleans is getting 3 points, but I’d have taken them getting 9.  I think they pull out the easy victory by 10.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 34-24

CIN @ BAL (-1.5)

I just don’t think Baltimore is that good. They have speed with their WR’s and an extra pop with the addition of Steve Smith. No Ray Rice means Bernard Pierce will handle the RB load. He is a capable, big back, but more of a head on collision type of runner than your elusive, lateral runner. Their defense should be solid as usual and I look forward to seeing rookie C.J. Mosley make his impact felt immediately, but their lack of offensive capabilities should likely stunt Joe Flacco and co.’s ability to get into the end zone.

Cincinnati enters the season very similar to the previous ones – likely to finish atop a mediocre division only to fizzle out come playoff time. The Bengals return Giovani Bernard at RB and of course, A.J. Green at WR, to compliment the sometimes shaky, Andy Dalton at QB. They have added some depth at both the RB & WR positions and should be solid on the defensive end, particularly with their CB play. In this game, they just need to outscore Baltimore, which shouldn't be a problem.

Take Cincinnati, the underdog here, getting points.

Spread: CIN

Straight Up: CIN

Score: 13-10

BUF @ CHI (-6.5)

Good news for Buffalo is that they’re playing in Chicago while it’s still warm. Bad news, pretty much everything else. Yes, they have a young QB in E.J Manuel (who might not even be starting by week 4). They also have a pretty good RB combo of C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson, who we’d like to see both remain healthy. They went out and drafted speedy WR Sammy Watkins with their first draft pick, who will be fun to watch assuming anyone can get him the ball. Buffalo seems to be banking on the future, but unfortunately for Bills fans, the future is not now.

Chicago seemed to gain a bit of revitalization on the offensive side with Marc Trestman at the helm. 

His cerebral approach to the game makes me want him to coach someone like Peyton Manning, rather than the impulsively prone, Jay Cutler. The person who benefited most from the new offensive scheme appears to be Matt Forte, who should see continued improvement in terms of number of carries and yardage, as the team strikes a healthy balance with WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Unlike Bears team of years past, this team will be led by their offense with their defense doing just enough to let them win.

I like the Bears at home giving a shade under a TD.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: CHI

Score: 24-17

WAS @ HOU (-2.5)

I think this has the potential to be one of the better match-ups of the day. Two teams that I think, unfortunately, will likely repeat their modest performances of last year. Houston starts the year off with a bunch of new faces. New head coach Bill O’Brien, starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick and this year’s #1 draft pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Fitzpatrick probably has the most complimentary offensive tools (WR’s Andre Johnson & DeAndre Hopkins along with RB’s Arian Foster & Andre Brown) in his professional career thus far. Clowney, a beyond impressive athlete, will be playing in an unfamiliar position (OLB) and hasn't had much on the field practice due to injuries. I expect a fairly steep learning curve for him with some flashes of his potential of what is to come in a few years. He may have to learn quickly, though, as Washington (and all future opponents) will likely spend most of the day running away from the new 100 Million Dollar man – J.J. Watt, from whom we could all learn a lesson in work ethic.

Washington kicks off the year under new head coach, Jay Gruden. Gruden, known as a QB-friendly coach and offensive mind (debatable to some Cincinnati fans), no doubt was brought in by owner Dan Snyder to try and get Robert Griffin III (RGIII) back on track. Since entering the league, perhaps no QB has had such a quick rise and fall with a chance to still rise again. The acquisition of WR DeSean Jackson, flanked to the opposite side of Pierre Garcon, along with Pro Bowler Alfred Morris at RB, should all help ease some of the pressure off RGIII. The truth though, RGIII likes being option #1 & #2 as evidenced by his continuing inability to know when to slide or go out of bounds. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins as a viable QB, I don’t think Griffin has too long (read too many hits on the run), before Cousins supplants him as starter, that is if Snyder doesn't trade him to gain back the draft picks they traded away to get RGIII in the first place.

I think this game will be close throughout, with Houston leading most of the way. I see Fitz (for all the in-game references to his intellect – he really is a smart guy), making one bad throw during a critical portion of the 4^th quarter. I see Washington capitalizing and coming down kicking a game winning FG, ruining the first appearance of the “new” Texans.

Spread: WAS

Straight Up: WAS

Score: 27-24

SF @ DAL (+5)

Was I the only person left off the guest list for Ray McDonald’s party last week? Between injuries, suspensions (both drug related and otherwise), it seems like the season could not start soon enough for the 49ers.  Despite being without some of their best defense players, Jim Harbaugh’s team should be just fine. Colin Kaepernick stands to have one of those college-like days; maybe 150 yards passing, 100 or so rushing. When he gets tired of spreading the wealth among his ample receiving options (including TE Vernon Davis), he’ll be able to call on the ever reliable, Frank Gore at RB. Don’t be surprised to see some action from #2 RB, rookie, Carlos Hyde, who should be a ton of fun to watch.

From everything that I am hearing and reading, Dallas might have the worst defense…ever. The usually spend happy Cowboys really did nothing to ensure fielding a well-balanced team for the next 17 or so weeks.  If what we all know is going to happen, happens, Romo will be the scapegoat and the ‘Boys will likely be in the cellar of a less than spectacular NFC East. At least we might be able to see Michael Sam get off the practice squad and into the starting lineup by season’s end.

49ers giving 5 points on the road is really just an embarrassment to the Cowboys. I like them to cover though. It is going to be a long season of frowns in Jerry Jones’ owner box, starting with this opener.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 28-10