49ers Stink or do They? (Week 3 Late Games)

Some good late games this week, including a rematch of last year's Super Bowl:

Too Many TO's from Kap

SF @ ARI (+2.5)

The Cardinals have been fairly unremarkable in their two wins. First barely getting by the Chargers and last week hardly having to show up against the Giants. Meanwhile, the 49ers did everything possible to give up a huge lead to the Bears, exposing many of the team's flaws (QB turnovers and a weak secondary). Lucky for the 49ers that Drew Stanton really didn't show much last week against the Giants. I think the 49ers come back strong here getting the win on the road and barely covering.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 24-20 

KC @ MIA (-4.5)

Bad news for the Chiefs, where it appears they may be without star RB Jamaal Charles, who has a high ankle sprain. The questions is, even if he played, can the Chiefs even win a game? The Dolphins had a great opener at home, then laid an egg last week in Buffalo. I'll chalk it up more to the Bills being better than everything first thought. I think this game will be close throughout, with the Dolphins getting the win. I'll take the points though.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: MIA

Score: 17-14

DEN @ SEA (-4.5)

We all know what happened the last time these teams met. This year, despite both teams showing they can still score, it is their defenses that have been a bit suspect. For all his talk about individual accolades, the Sherminator (I don't really think he calls himself this) is useful if the entire team plays well. Also, when challenged last week by the Chargers, he wasn't all that impressive. Maybe change the name - thoughts Parkman?

Thoughts Richard?

As for the Broncos, they too have not been overly impressive on the defensive end and have yet to get the ball moving well via the running game. Seahawks never lose at home and the Broncos can score in bunches. I like Seattle to win, but I'll take the points here.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-28

PIT @ CAR (-3)

Panthers are 2-0 and the Steelers appears to be inconsistent. They can't score consistently and they can't defend at all. Carolina appears to be able to do both. I'll take the Panthers on all fronts.

Spread: CAR

Straight Up: CAR

Score: 24-10

Folk for the Win?

CHI @ NYJ (-2) 

The Jets looked pretty good last week, then came out and pulled a "Jags" in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Bears looked like the comeback kids, walking all over the 49ers in the 4th quarter. What do we glean from these games? Nothing really. Inconsistency is the new normal in the NFL. I see this as a game of turnovers, with the team getting the last one connecting on a FG. I'll take the home team for the win on MNF, but I'm taking the points.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 24-23

Week 2 Late Games

Looking forward to another great weekend of football. Let's get right to the late games:

SEA @ SD (+6)

Seattle looked great against the Packers in week 1. Meanwhile, the Chargers answered the question “can you ever just be ‘whelmed’?” on offense. While not an under-whelming performance, they truly looked uninspired in their loss to the Cardinals. I can’t see them scoring more points on a much better Seahawks defense, even playing at home. Six points are a lot for a visiting team, but I like the Seahawks to cover.

Spread: SEA

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 31-17

STL @ TB (-4.5)

I just checked the TV listings and this game is being blocked out in both the St. Louis and Tampa local markets. I think everyone would rather watch Shawshank Redemption another time, than be subjected to this. Much like the Giants, until the Rams prove that they can score, I pretty much like any team playing them. Lovie Smith’s Bucs couldn’t pull out the victory last week against a Camless Panthers team. This week, no one really knows who will be starting at QB for the Rams, but really, does it matter? Since I don’t think either team is likely to score that much, I’ll take the Rams to cover (moral victory anyone?), but I like TB to win. 

Spread: STL

Straight Up: TB

Score: 13-10

KC @ DEN (-13)

These two teams are heading quickly in two very different directions. The Chiefs lost two of their anchors on defense last week for the season (Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson). This would be bad enough if they also can't seem to figure out a way to score. Enter Peyton Manning and the Broncos and this will always make for a double digit spread. Look for Manning, who is so adept and exposing other team's weaknesses, to do just that on Sunday. I don't see this game being very close, my only question is if the Broncos ease up on the gas enough to let the Chiefs hang around. This week, I think they learn their lesson and put the game far out of reach.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: DEN

Score: 38-13

NYJ @ GB (-8.5)

Green Bay had a tough go having to start their season in Seattle. Although the Jets are certainly a lesser opponent than the Seahawks, the Packers may have to try to win without Eddie Lacy. If that is the case, expect a heavy dose of Rodgers to any number of his WR's (particularly Cobb & Nelson). I think the Jets will stick around most of the game, but in the end, Rodgers will always have one last TD in his back pocket. Jets to cover, but Packers for the win. 

Spread: NYJ

Straight Up: GB

Score: 27-20 

HOU @ OAK (+3)

I feel for Derek Carr. He makes his first career start against a pretty good Jets defense only to go make his home debut against the Texans and J.J. Watt. Oh yeah - he also plays for the Raiders. Neither of these teams looked overly impressive on offense, so I think this game will be close the whole way. I think the Texans are better and the Raiders haven't figured out just yet how to win close games. Texans to win, but I'll take the points with the home Raiders.   

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: HOU

Score: 19-17 

CHI @ SF (-7)

The Bears and 49ers started their seasons in almost polar opposite fashion; the former by a FG in OT, the latter taking the lead on their team's first defensive possession and never looking back. Despite the off the field troubles for the 49ers, they seem to be one of the better balanced teams in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, we know Chicago has made a marked change towards the offensive end. Last week, the 49ers pretty much scored at will - I expect much of the same against the Bears. The only question is how many points their defense will let up. In the end, I think they do enough to cover.  

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 31-21 

PHI @ IND (-3)

The Eagles got a scare last week from the Jags, proving that they are a team will vulnerabilities. That's the good news (for all non Eagles fans). The bad, they also proved that they could score 34 unanswered points in one half. The Colts, meanwhile, went on the road and nearly came back on the Broncos, proving that they too can score in bulk (17 points in the second half). I don't see either defense being too effective in this game, so I think it will come down to clock management. I like Andrew Luck's ability to do so, particularly at home and think the Colts do enough win and cover.

Spread: IND

Straight Up: IND

Score: 36-31 

Monday Games

This is the post I was avoiding having to write all weekend.  The one where I finally admit that the Giants offensive woes in the preseason truly will translate to a lack of success thought this 2014 NFL season. Then the Dolphins went out and shocked the Patriots, giving me at least, a glimmer of hope that the Giants may not be as bad as I think them to be.

Let's get to Monday night's games:

NYG @ DET (-5.5)

Detroit enters the season with a new head coach - Jim Caldwell.  Caldwell inherits a team with some sizable talent on offense (QB Matt Stafford, perhaps the league's best WR, Calvin Johnson as well as a nice RB duo of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell) and potential on defense. They also went out and drafter highly touted TE, Eric Ebron, who should help take the pressure off both Johnson and Stafford. I expect this year to be much like the previous ones - the Lions should score a lot and give up a lot of points. Due to Stafford's tendency for turnovers and their defense's lack of discipline, they can't be trusted in close games.

Tom Coughlin will age 10 years during this NFL season. Everyone will be discussing whether QB Eli Manning can grasp the new offensive scheme, something which thus far, looks to have escaped him. Even if he does, the Giants are really lacking offensive weapons. RB Rashard Jennings is solid, but I'm not sold on him being and every play, all-purpose back. Rookie RB Andrew Williams should spell Jennings a bit, but may not be enough coming out of the backfield. Everyone knows that WR Victor Cruz is the Giants #1, 2 & 3, option, leaving WR Rueben Randle with all the potential for a fine season - assuming the much maligned offensive line gives Manning enough time to throw. Manning has always been better with a solid receiving TE, but the Giants have lacked such an option for several years now. The defense (improved on paper due to some splashy off season signings), may have to work double time just to offset the lack of scoring that should come out of this anemic offense. 

It pains me to say, but until the Giants prove they can score, I can't trust them to cover, particularly on the road.

Spread: DET

Straight Up: DET

Score: 24-10

SD @ ARI (-3)

Much of Arizona's success this season will be determined by their running game. RB Andre Ellington has the potential for a 1,000+ yards - but he might not play tonight. Any absence there should cause QB Carson Palmer to rely heavily on WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Fitzgerald, who is beyond his best years is still a viable threat with stick 'em for hands and Floyd has the potential to be very good. On defense, the Cardinals should be good, particularly with a strong secondary, which looks to be one of the top in the league. It remains to be seen, however, if all the pieces can come together to equal wins.

San Diego has a team that could easily win or lose 10 games.  I think everything depends on the number of team turnovers, especially in the hands of QB Phillip Rivers. Rivers has some decent weapons on offense including, RB's Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, WR's Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown as well as TE Antonio Gates, who despite injuries and age, can still go up for the "jump ball" when necessary. On defense, much like the Cardinals, there are lots of questions, which can only be answered in-game. 

Tonight, I like San Diego to steal the home opener from the Cardinals.

Spread: SD

Straight Up: SD

Score: 27-24

Sundays Are For Couches

If you love football like I do, then your home couch or chair probably gets a lot of use on Sundays. I have always loved watching these games. As a kid, my dad and I would watch whatever game was on at 1 PM (usually the Giants or Jets), then put on the 4 PM game (usually taking a quick power nap during if we didn't care about the results. Now, even my wife Jen has created a Sunday tradition, which usually entails her cursing out the bulk of her fantasy teams. You gotta love Sundays.

Let's get right to the games:

CLE @ PIT (-6.5)

Quick question. What number will be higher this year? The number of offensive TD’s by the Browns or cars sold by Josh Gordon? In all seriousness, the highly talented WR has some issues going on and needs to be away from football (and probably Cleveland as a whole) for a while. The publicity stunt having him work at a local dealership is just that – jury is out on who it benefits, if anyone. As for the QB situation, coach Mike Pettine has come forward saying that while Brian Hoyer is the starter, expect to see Johnny Manziel see some action as well. Who cares who is throwing if they have no one to receive it?

Pittsburgh enters the game under a cloud (bad pun?) of uncertainty. It seems like every year we are discussing how offensively, Pittsburgh has drawn up new schemes to make them more of a downfield throwing team, as opposed to their traditional, smashmouth football. That never happens. WR Antonio Brown is a legitimate deep ball threat and I look forward to QB Ben Roethlisberger finding him several times this game (and most of the year) in the end zone. On defense, watch out for first round pick, LB Ryan Shazier who should be playing like a veteran by the third quarter.

I don’t have high hopes for the Browns, but am not sold on the Steelers ability to score just yet. I like PIT to win at home, but I’m taking the points.

Spread: CLE

Straight Up: PIT

Score: 17-13

MIN @ STL (-3.5)

I received a call from my agent earlier this week asking me if I wanted to try out for the open Rams QB position. I told him I would, but I really enjoy my menially paying job instead. You have to feel really bad for injured QB Sam Bradford and the Rams as a whole. Jeff Fisher’s team will look to journeyman Shaun Hill to lead the offense. I doubt he will be the starter by the end of the year. Hill will need a lot of help from particularly RB Zak Stacy. The Rams have a more than serviceable defense, which should help the game close.

Minnesota enters the season with some confidence, particularly on offense. Any team with RB Adrian Peterson (assuming he is fully healthy) has a chance to win a lot of games. QB Matt Cassel will start, while first round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater will watch and learn and most certainly be ready to play, when and if necessary. The Vikings also have a new potential breakout player in WR Cordarrelle Patterson. The Vikings defense certainly has some holes, but I’m just not sure if the Rams will be able to expose them.

I like MIN to cover on the road.

Spread: MIN

Straight Up: MIN

Score:  27-22

CAR @ TB (-1)

Lovie Smith has reason to be excited for his new team in Tampa. They went out and signed a familiar face in reliable QB Josh McCown. RB Doug Martin and several good WR’s including Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, should be able to put points on the board. Their offensive line is suspect (better with the acquisition of Logan Matkins from the Patriots) and we all know this can have a crippling effect on offensive efficiency.

No Newton, no win

For Ron Rivera’s Panthers, this is a fairly simple game. Without a healthy Cam Newton, this is likely a loss. It sounds like Newton won’t play and if he does, will certainly not be 100%. Without Newton, the Panthers will really struggle. I think rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin will be good, eventually, but needs time to mature. Defensively it remains to be seen if their secondary is strong enough. Look for McCown to expose this during the game.

I like Lovie Smith’s debut to be a successful one in Tampa. A Newtonless Panthers team just doesn’t have enough to stick with the home Bucs.

Spread: TB

Straight up: TB

Score: 20-14

IND @ DEN (-7.5)

I expect Denver to average about 35 points a game this year. Even without WR Wes Welker (suspension, injuries, etc…) QB Peyton Manning has plenty of options, particularly with WR Demaryius Thomas as well as TE Julius Thomas. With an offense like this, who cares about their defense, which by the way, is quite good.

The Indianapolis Colts should have a fine year. They just won’t win today on the road in Denver. QB Andrew Luck has a solid group of offensive weapons. The main question is at RB where no one is certain if Trent Richardson can be a dominant force once again and if he can’t, then if often injured Ahmad Bradshaw can step it up and play like he did back with the Giants. Father time is often cruel to football players, particularly the running backs. I just don’t see it happening.

I like DEN at home in a shootout.

Spread: DEN

Straight Up: DEN

Score: 40-23

24 Hours to Kickoff

Week 1 around here, much like the NFL season, is just about working out the finer points. I hope everyone gets a chance to at least watch a few college football games today. As I tell my wife Jen (who has now exceeded me in number of fantasy NFL leagues in which she participates), you need to pay some attention to these players - after all, you'll be drafting some next year. 

Here we go with some more Week 1 NFL picks:

TEN @ KC (-3.5)

Remember when the Chiefs won 9 straight games to start the 2013 season? You don’t? That’s because everyone remembers the last 8 (including the playoffs) where they went 2-6. In a very much “what have you done for me lately?” situation, the Chiefs simply need to play like the team from the first half of last year or else they may find themselves very much forgotten again – even by their own fans: 

Steady-handed QB Alex Smith hopes he can discover a new favorite target, now that they will be without Dwayne Bowe (suspension). I hear former TE great, Tony Gonzalez is available. By default or necessity, leave it to all-purpose RB Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs once again in nearly every category; just don’t ask him to move any furniture during the bye week.

The Tennessee Titans face a world of questions to start the season. Will Jake Locker remain healthy? (Answer: not likely). Will new coach Kent Whisenhunt be able to squeeze as much offensive talent as he has in previous stints in Pittsburgh and Arizona? (Answer: definitely). Will anyone step up in the running game to makes us reminisce about the days when Chris Johnson was actually a threat? (Answer: maybe rookie Bishop Sankey…in a few years). Look for the big-splash (by Tennessee standards) signee, Dexter McCluster, try to break out against his former team. McCluster, primarily used as a return man (Pro Bowler), should be given many different looks in a Whisenhunt-planned offense. Despite this, I expect them to struggle a bit acclimating, until #1 WR’s & RB’s emerge to help the talented Locker.

I think Andy Reid has his group start well as they did last year, doing more than enough to beat the visiting Titans.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: KC

Score: 30-20

NE @ MIA (+5)

If you believe in the simple rule of spreads, namely that a home team automatically receives 3 points, then Miami is in for a very long game. The Dolphins have all the makings of a mediocre team; an overpaid and underachieving WR (Mike Wallace) and loads of potential in RB Lamar Miller and QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace, known for his downfield speed (and running his mouth), should stick to the former, which he failed all too often to do last year, only getting into the end zone 5 times. With a better than average defense, Miami will likely play around 500 all year. Here, I just don’t see them being strong enough on either side of the ball to really challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots.

I hate the Patriots. I won’t let it cloud my judgment, but I really don’t like them. Having gone to college in New England, the only thing worse than listening to a Patriots fan during football season (they won the Super Bowl 3 out of my 4 years there), perhaps is listening to a Red Sox fan talk about anything.  Here is a simple prediction. The number of points scored per game this season will be directly related to Rob Gronkowski’s health. Talk about RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley or WR’s Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, as far as I’m concerned, let them all stay on the line blocking. If Gronk is healthy, they can put up 35 points/game, easily. Now, if he isn’t 100%, then their strong defense will look to keep them in games. 

Here, against this Dolphins team, half a Gronk should suffice. I’ll take the Patriots by a lot.

Spread: NE

Straight Up: NE

Score: 38-18

OAK @ NYJ (-5.5)

The New York Jets enter the season with nearly identical questions to the start of the 2013 campaign. Will Rex Ryan survive as the coach? Is Geno Smith the QB of the future? If Geno starts making the throw can anyone catch the ball? I think the answer is categorically, no. Ryan has gotten along for far too long on bravado without any true results. His offensive teams are like football’s version of the DH – just collect a paycheck and die out. Defensively, we know he can coach and his players happily buy into his system. Too bad their enthusiasm can’t make the offense synch up. Smith, much like last year, stands to struggle while he tries to find a reliable offensive target. Newcomer Eric Decker should be a solid addition at WR to a group that surely needs standout. Unfortunately, for Decker, Peyton Manning with a vertebrae injury, throwing lefty from his hospital bed, is probably more reliable than Smith. Rookie TE Jase Amaro might one day be Smith’s go-to, but who knows though if he develops soon enough for Smith to still be starting. Knowing that rookie QB Derek Carr will get the start for Oakland, I look forward to seeing Ryan blitz early and often, particularly with his new rookie safety, Calvin Pryor.

Aside from Carr and heralded first round draft pick, Khaleel Mack at LB, the Raiders field a team of players beyond their prime. They re-signed the oft-injured, but consistently disappointing Darren McFadden to split reps with Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD, who pretty much wasted a career playing for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, now looks to rejuvenate himself in Oakland. I just don’t see it ending well. I think Carr will show flashes of potential, but overall, the Raiders are just not that good. Against the Jets, much like the remainder of the season, they’ll play close enough to keep it exciting for 3 quarters, only to lose it all in the end.

I like the Jets to win, but the Raiders to cover. Take the points.

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 20-17

JAC @ PHI (-10)

This is really a tale of two teams: Philadelphia is a score now and ask questions later type team and Jacksonville just stinks. Eagles coach Brian Kelly is known as somewhat of an offensive guru, but if it were me, I’d only need one play – draw to LeSean McCoy. Until any team proves that they can stop him regularly (which none thus far have been able to do), just feed him the ball as much as possible. If, on occasion, he needs a rest, Eagles fans can take comfort in the fact that QB Nick Foles has developed into a reliable passer, oh and the Eagles also have possibly the fastest man in football now in Darren Sproles. Many questions remain on the defensive end, however, Philadelphia looks to outscore nearly everyone they play this year, particularly in a weakened NFC East.

Good thing that first year head coach Gus Bradley is a defense-first type; his defense will be on the field a lot this year. They added a slew of veterans on defense (mostly guys no one has ever heard of) to compliment LB Paul Posluszny, who has looked like the real leader of the defense group. For all the defensive talk, though, all eyes will be on the offense. The Jags went out and spent their first round draft pick on QB Blake Bortles, a highly scrutinized choice, that looks, thus far, to have been a great long-term decision. Current starter Chad Henne is merely there as a placeholder, just waiting for the loyal fans to clamor enough for Bradley to pull the hook on him. I give them six weeks before Bortles is starting at home in a possible rookie vs. rookie matchup against the Browns and Johnny Manziel.

I am always wary of double-digit spreads, but until the Jags show they can stop anyone, I see a lot of lopsided losses. The Eagles, as we know, have the potential to score loads of points, with the only real opponent being the clock running out of time. I’m taking the Eagles.

Spread: PHI

Straight Up: PHI

Score: 41-10

Week 1 Picks (some early games)

First game of the year surprised me a bit (I can't be the only one right?). Seattle looked about as good as expected, but it was Green Bay that looked surprisingly flat. An Eddie Lacy concussion, bad penalties and suspect defense play all have the makings of a long season for the Packers.  More to come in the Monday Download. 

Let's get right to the next set of games.

NO @ ATL (+3)

Several years ago, these games used to be a lot closer. Now, each team appears to be heading in different directions. New Orleans, already an explosive offense, went out and drafted speedy WR Brandin Cooks, only furthering their depth there. The Saints do have some questions at the RB position with no one definitely taking charge. Mark Ingram will likely start as the #1 back, but who finishes the season as the leading rusher is anybody’s best guess. Drew Brees, however, should be just fine throwing to any number of his weapons, including Jimmy “don’tcall me TE” Graham.

Atlanta, similar to the Saints, has nice depth for their wide receivers and should be just fine on that front, assuming Julio Jones stays healthy this year. Losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement won't help them, but may create some more opportunities for other players like Harry Douglas (full disclosure, I’m a very big Louisville Cardinals fan). The Falcons, much like the Saints, have a lot of questions at the RB position. Starter Steven Jackson, 31, is old by NFL standards and I can’t see him playing a full schedule this year. Until Jackson proves that he can help open up some gaps for the Falcons, I expect Rob Ryan to blitz early and often with his Saints’ defense. Matt Ryan will have his hands full.

New Orleans is getting 3 points, but I’d have taken them getting 9.  I think they pull out the easy victory by 10.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 34-24

CIN @ BAL (-1.5)

I just don’t think Baltimore is that good. They have speed with their WR’s and an extra pop with the addition of Steve Smith. No Ray Rice means Bernard Pierce will handle the RB load. He is a capable, big back, but more of a head on collision type of runner than your elusive, lateral runner. Their defense should be solid as usual and I look forward to seeing rookie C.J. Mosley make his impact felt immediately, but their lack of offensive capabilities should likely stunt Joe Flacco and co.’s ability to get into the end zone.

Cincinnati enters the season very similar to the previous ones – likely to finish atop a mediocre division only to fizzle out come playoff time. The Bengals return Giovani Bernard at RB and of course, A.J. Green at WR, to compliment the sometimes shaky, Andy Dalton at QB. They have added some depth at both the RB & WR positions and should be solid on the defensive end, particularly with their CB play. In this game, they just need to outscore Baltimore, which shouldn't be a problem.

Take Cincinnati, the underdog here, getting points.

Spread: CIN

Straight Up: CIN

Score: 13-10

BUF @ CHI (-6.5)

Good news for Buffalo is that they’re playing in Chicago while it’s still warm. Bad news, pretty much everything else. Yes, they have a young QB in E.J Manuel (who might not even be starting by week 4). They also have a pretty good RB combo of C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson, who we’d like to see both remain healthy. They went out and drafted speedy WR Sammy Watkins with their first draft pick, who will be fun to watch assuming anyone can get him the ball. Buffalo seems to be banking on the future, but unfortunately for Bills fans, the future is not now.

Chicago seemed to gain a bit of revitalization on the offensive side with Marc Trestman at the helm. 

His cerebral approach to the game makes me want him to coach someone like Peyton Manning, rather than the impulsively prone, Jay Cutler. The person who benefited most from the new offensive scheme appears to be Matt Forte, who should see continued improvement in terms of number of carries and yardage, as the team strikes a healthy balance with WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Unlike Bears team of years past, this team will be led by their offense with their defense doing just enough to let them win.

I like the Bears at home giving a shade under a TD.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: CHI

Score: 24-17

WAS @ HOU (-2.5)

I think this has the potential to be one of the better match-ups of the day. Two teams that I think, unfortunately, will likely repeat their modest performances of last year. Houston starts the year off with a bunch of new faces. New head coach Bill O’Brien, starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick and this year’s #1 draft pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Fitzpatrick probably has the most complimentary offensive tools (WR’s Andre Johnson & DeAndre Hopkins along with RB’s Arian Foster & Andre Brown) in his professional career thus far. Clowney, a beyond impressive athlete, will be playing in an unfamiliar position (OLB) and hasn't had much on the field practice due to injuries. I expect a fairly steep learning curve for him with some flashes of his potential of what is to come in a few years. He may have to learn quickly, though, as Washington (and all future opponents) will likely spend most of the day running away from the new 100 Million Dollar man – J.J. Watt, from whom we could all learn a lesson in work ethic.

Washington kicks off the year under new head coach, Jay Gruden. Gruden, known as a QB-friendly coach and offensive mind (debatable to some Cincinnati fans), no doubt was brought in by owner Dan Snyder to try and get Robert Griffin III (RGIII) back on track. Since entering the league, perhaps no QB has had such a quick rise and fall with a chance to still rise again. The acquisition of WR DeSean Jackson, flanked to the opposite side of Pierre Garcon, along with Pro Bowler Alfred Morris at RB, should all help ease some of the pressure off RGIII. The truth though, RGIII likes being option #1 & #2 as evidenced by his continuing inability to know when to slide or go out of bounds. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins as a viable QB, I don’t think Griffin has too long (read too many hits on the run), before Cousins supplants him as starter, that is if Snyder doesn't trade him to gain back the draft picks they traded away to get RGIII in the first place.

I think this game will be close throughout, with Houston leading most of the way. I see Fitz (for all the in-game references to his intellect – he really is a smart guy), making one bad throw during a critical portion of the 4^th quarter. I see Washington capitalizing and coming down kicking a game winning FG, ruining the first appearance of the “new” Texans.

Spread: WAS

Straight Up: WAS

Score: 27-24

SF @ DAL (+5)

Was I the only person left off the guest list for Ray McDonald’s party last week? Between injuries, suspensions (both drug related and otherwise), it seems like the season could not start soon enough for the 49ers.  Despite being without some of their best defense players, Jim Harbaugh’s team should be just fine. Colin Kaepernick stands to have one of those college-like days; maybe 150 yards passing, 100 or so rushing. When he gets tired of spreading the wealth among his ample receiving options (including TE Vernon Davis), he’ll be able to call on the ever reliable, Frank Gore at RB. Don’t be surprised to see some action from #2 RB, rookie, Carlos Hyde, who should be a ton of fun to watch.

From everything that I am hearing and reading, Dallas might have the worst defense…ever. The usually spend happy Cowboys really did nothing to ensure fielding a well-balanced team for the next 17 or so weeks.  If what we all know is going to happen, happens, Romo will be the scapegoat and the ‘Boys will likely be in the cellar of a less than spectacular NFC East. At least we might be able to see Michael Sam get off the practice squad and into the starting lineup by season’s end.

49ers giving 5 points on the road is really just an embarrassment to the Cowboys. I like them to cover though. It is going to be a long season of frowns in Jerry Jones’ owner box, starting with this opener.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 28-10

Thursdays Are Meaningful Again

Summer is almost over and the consolation for not having that tan that you wanted or enough beach time is the fact that Thursday night kicks off the NFL season. We all now can spend the majority of our weekdays pretending to work while we quadruple check the injury reports, fantasy waivers and weather forecasts as if we are all NFL GM’s and then the majority of our weekends ruing each decision we had made and every trade we didn't make. Over here, we’re going to do some old fashioned picks against the spreads.

Week 1, it should be noted will be game picks with slight team overviews. Subsequent weeks will take into consideration the previous week’s play. I simply just don’t put all that much weight into pre-season play (Thank you Eli and my Giants or Adrian Peterson).           

GB @ SEA (-5.5)

The Super Bowl champs start their season off at home, a place they rarely lose. Aside from wanting to start the season off with a win on the road, Green Bay will also look to avenge last year’s painful last second loss on the phantom catch by Golden Tate.

  

Seattle looks to continue its dominance on both sides of the ball.  A fierce defense led by all-mouth MVP, Richard Sherman, looks to compliment a balanced offense highlighted by Marshawn Lynch.  Beastmode, who often goes untouched into the end zone, seems to like his toys sans fingerprints as well.

Green Bay won a fairly weak NFC North last year, but returns a hopefully healthy Aaron Rogers, sophomore running back, Eddie Lacy and solid group of wide receivers. Of all the players on that offense, perhaps the most scrutiny will be on rookie center, Corey Linsley, making his debut before the home “12^th Man” Seattle crowd. Rumor has it that Rogers petitioned the NFL to go old-school auto-QB mode and self-hike every snap, but Roger Goodell was having none of it. Regardless of potential botched snaps and a few missed signals due to the crowd, any Rogers’ led team should be just fine.

I think both teams will show some off-season rust, with Seattle taking the game, but Green Bay covering. Seattle by a FG.

Spread: GB

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 17-14