And We're Back

How did everyone spend their summer? Flew by as usual amiright? So let's start off addressing the elephant at Foxborough. We all know that the collective North North East of the U.S. we know as New England held its breath for nearly the entirety of training camp. New Englanders all finally exhaled last week, creating a significant Southern zephyr, as a Judge overturned Tom Brady's potential four game ban.

Putting any biases towards Brady, the Patriots & Roger Goodell aside, my single largest complaint is the waste of judicial resources in this process. This entire affair involved, lawyers, judges, arbitrators & any number of ancillary officials. When I was a kid, if you cheated or deflated someone else's balls, you either bought them a new one or had to line up and everyone got a free throw to peg you with another ball.

Week 1 - Thursday Night Game:

PIT @ NE (-7)

New England kicks off at home.  Without any real stars at RB or WR, the loquacious Bill "no comment" Belichick looks to continue to produce offensively by committee. Of course, when you have Rob Gronkowski playing TE, your playbook really only needs to be one play, with multiple check downs inserted. On defense, New England should be decent, although noticeably absent will be fan favorite, Vince Wolfolk, who could swallow a gap almost at will. My guess is that the Patriots play a numbers game this year, not worrying too much about points given up, hoping that the offense can always score a bit more.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, rolls in with a very un-Steelers-like team. Often favored for its staunch defense ("Steel Curtain"), this year's club looks more like a baby blanket. Losing many fan favorites to retirement, this defense is so bad, that when asked about getting the defense ready, long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau reportedly said the Korean War was a cakewalk compared to coaching this group. In fact, he resigned from the Steelers in January and took an assistant coaching position with Tennessee a few months later. On offense, however, Pittsburgh has a chance to be very well balanced, maybe even explosive. The Steelers are stocked at WR, with Anotonio Brown looking to lead the league in almost every category. They'll be even better once Martavis Bryant comes back from suspension. Speaking of which, RB Le'Veon Bell will also miss a few games, but when he returns, QB Ben Roethlisberger should have the ability to finally run an excellent play-action game. Until then, just throw downfield to Brown.

Although the Steelers will likely score a lot during this year, don't expect them to be fully up to speed until around week 5, when all their weapons should return. I like the Patriots to take the home opener, with Pittsburgh covering the spread.

Spread: PIT
Straight Up: NE
Score: 27-21

24 Hours to Kickoff

Week 1 around here, much like the NFL season, is just about working out the finer points. I hope everyone gets a chance to at least watch a few college football games today. As I tell my wife Jen (who has now exceeded me in number of fantasy NFL leagues in which she participates), you need to pay some attention to these players - after all, you'll be drafting some next year. 

Here we go with some more Week 1 NFL picks:

TEN @ KC (-3.5)

Remember when the Chiefs won 9 straight games to start the 2013 season? You don’t? That’s because everyone remembers the last 8 (including the playoffs) where they went 2-6. In a very much “what have you done for me lately?” situation, the Chiefs simply need to play like the team from the first half of last year or else they may find themselves very much forgotten again – even by their own fans: 

Steady-handed QB Alex Smith hopes he can discover a new favorite target, now that they will be without Dwayne Bowe (suspension). I hear former TE great, Tony Gonzalez is available. By default or necessity, leave it to all-purpose RB Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs once again in nearly every category; just don’t ask him to move any furniture during the bye week.

The Tennessee Titans face a world of questions to start the season. Will Jake Locker remain healthy? (Answer: not likely). Will new coach Kent Whisenhunt be able to squeeze as much offensive talent as he has in previous stints in Pittsburgh and Arizona? (Answer: definitely). Will anyone step up in the running game to makes us reminisce about the days when Chris Johnson was actually a threat? (Answer: maybe rookie Bishop Sankey…in a few years). Look for the big-splash (by Tennessee standards) signee, Dexter McCluster, try to break out against his former team. McCluster, primarily used as a return man (Pro Bowler), should be given many different looks in a Whisenhunt-planned offense. Despite this, I expect them to struggle a bit acclimating, until #1 WR’s & RB’s emerge to help the talented Locker.

I think Andy Reid has his group start well as they did last year, doing more than enough to beat the visiting Titans.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: KC

Score: 30-20

NE @ MIA (+5)

If you believe in the simple rule of spreads, namely that a home team automatically receives 3 points, then Miami is in for a very long game. The Dolphins have all the makings of a mediocre team; an overpaid and underachieving WR (Mike Wallace) and loads of potential in RB Lamar Miller and QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace, known for his downfield speed (and running his mouth), should stick to the former, which he failed all too often to do last year, only getting into the end zone 5 times. With a better than average defense, Miami will likely play around 500 all year. Here, I just don’t see them being strong enough on either side of the ball to really challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots.

I hate the Patriots. I won’t let it cloud my judgment, but I really don’t like them. Having gone to college in New England, the only thing worse than listening to a Patriots fan during football season (they won the Super Bowl 3 out of my 4 years there), perhaps is listening to a Red Sox fan talk about anything.  Here is a simple prediction. The number of points scored per game this season will be directly related to Rob Gronkowski’s health. Talk about RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley or WR’s Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, as far as I’m concerned, let them all stay on the line blocking. If Gronk is healthy, they can put up 35 points/game, easily. Now, if he isn’t 100%, then their strong defense will look to keep them in games. 

Here, against this Dolphins team, half a Gronk should suffice. I’ll take the Patriots by a lot.

Spread: NE

Straight Up: NE

Score: 38-18

OAK @ NYJ (-5.5)

The New York Jets enter the season with nearly identical questions to the start of the 2013 campaign. Will Rex Ryan survive as the coach? Is Geno Smith the QB of the future? If Geno starts making the throw can anyone catch the ball? I think the answer is categorically, no. Ryan has gotten along for far too long on bravado without any true results. His offensive teams are like football’s version of the DH – just collect a paycheck and die out. Defensively, we know he can coach and his players happily buy into his system. Too bad their enthusiasm can’t make the offense synch up. Smith, much like last year, stands to struggle while he tries to find a reliable offensive target. Newcomer Eric Decker should be a solid addition at WR to a group that surely needs standout. Unfortunately, for Decker, Peyton Manning with a vertebrae injury, throwing lefty from his hospital bed, is probably more reliable than Smith. Rookie TE Jase Amaro might one day be Smith’s go-to, but who knows though if he develops soon enough for Smith to still be starting. Knowing that rookie QB Derek Carr will get the start for Oakland, I look forward to seeing Ryan blitz early and often, particularly with his new rookie safety, Calvin Pryor.

Aside from Carr and heralded first round draft pick, Khaleel Mack at LB, the Raiders field a team of players beyond their prime. They re-signed the oft-injured, but consistently disappointing Darren McFadden to split reps with Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD, who pretty much wasted a career playing for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, now looks to rejuvenate himself in Oakland. I just don’t see it ending well. I think Carr will show flashes of potential, but overall, the Raiders are just not that good. Against the Jets, much like the remainder of the season, they’ll play close enough to keep it exciting for 3 quarters, only to lose it all in the end.

I like the Jets to win, but the Raiders to cover. Take the points.

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 20-17

JAC @ PHI (-10)

This is really a tale of two teams: Philadelphia is a score now and ask questions later type team and Jacksonville just stinks. Eagles coach Brian Kelly is known as somewhat of an offensive guru, but if it were me, I’d only need one play – draw to LeSean McCoy. Until any team proves that they can stop him regularly (which none thus far have been able to do), just feed him the ball as much as possible. If, on occasion, he needs a rest, Eagles fans can take comfort in the fact that QB Nick Foles has developed into a reliable passer, oh and the Eagles also have possibly the fastest man in football now in Darren Sproles. Many questions remain on the defensive end, however, Philadelphia looks to outscore nearly everyone they play this year, particularly in a weakened NFC East.

Good thing that first year head coach Gus Bradley is a defense-first type; his defense will be on the field a lot this year. They added a slew of veterans on defense (mostly guys no one has ever heard of) to compliment LB Paul Posluszny, who has looked like the real leader of the defense group. For all the defensive talk, though, all eyes will be on the offense. The Jags went out and spent their first round draft pick on QB Blake Bortles, a highly scrutinized choice, that looks, thus far, to have been a great long-term decision. Current starter Chad Henne is merely there as a placeholder, just waiting for the loyal fans to clamor enough for Bradley to pull the hook on him. I give them six weeks before Bortles is starting at home in a possible rookie vs. rookie matchup against the Browns and Johnny Manziel.

I am always wary of double-digit spreads, but until the Jags show they can stop anyone, I see a lot of lopsided losses. The Eagles, as we know, have the potential to score loads of points, with the only real opponent being the clock running out of time. I’m taking the Eagles.

Spread: PHI

Straight Up: PHI

Score: 41-10

Week 1 Picks (some early games)

First game of the year surprised me a bit (I can't be the only one right?). Seattle looked about as good as expected, but it was Green Bay that looked surprisingly flat. An Eddie Lacy concussion, bad penalties and suspect defense play all have the makings of a long season for the Packers.  More to come in the Monday Download. 

Let's get right to the next set of games.

NO @ ATL (+3)

Several years ago, these games used to be a lot closer. Now, each team appears to be heading in different directions. New Orleans, already an explosive offense, went out and drafted speedy WR Brandin Cooks, only furthering their depth there. The Saints do have some questions at the RB position with no one definitely taking charge. Mark Ingram will likely start as the #1 back, but who finishes the season as the leading rusher is anybody’s best guess. Drew Brees, however, should be just fine throwing to any number of his weapons, including Jimmy “don’tcall me TE” Graham.

Atlanta, similar to the Saints, has nice depth for their wide receivers and should be just fine on that front, assuming Julio Jones stays healthy this year. Losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement won't help them, but may create some more opportunities for other players like Harry Douglas (full disclosure, I’m a very big Louisville Cardinals fan). The Falcons, much like the Saints, have a lot of questions at the RB position. Starter Steven Jackson, 31, is old by NFL standards and I can’t see him playing a full schedule this year. Until Jackson proves that he can help open up some gaps for the Falcons, I expect Rob Ryan to blitz early and often with his Saints’ defense. Matt Ryan will have his hands full.

New Orleans is getting 3 points, but I’d have taken them getting 9.  I think they pull out the easy victory by 10.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 34-24

CIN @ BAL (-1.5)

I just don’t think Baltimore is that good. They have speed with their WR’s and an extra pop with the addition of Steve Smith. No Ray Rice means Bernard Pierce will handle the RB load. He is a capable, big back, but more of a head on collision type of runner than your elusive, lateral runner. Their defense should be solid as usual and I look forward to seeing rookie C.J. Mosley make his impact felt immediately, but their lack of offensive capabilities should likely stunt Joe Flacco and co.’s ability to get into the end zone.

Cincinnati enters the season very similar to the previous ones – likely to finish atop a mediocre division only to fizzle out come playoff time. The Bengals return Giovani Bernard at RB and of course, A.J. Green at WR, to compliment the sometimes shaky, Andy Dalton at QB. They have added some depth at both the RB & WR positions and should be solid on the defensive end, particularly with their CB play. In this game, they just need to outscore Baltimore, which shouldn't be a problem.

Take Cincinnati, the underdog here, getting points.

Spread: CIN

Straight Up: CIN

Score: 13-10

BUF @ CHI (-6.5)

Good news for Buffalo is that they’re playing in Chicago while it’s still warm. Bad news, pretty much everything else. Yes, they have a young QB in E.J Manuel (who might not even be starting by week 4). They also have a pretty good RB combo of C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson, who we’d like to see both remain healthy. They went out and drafted speedy WR Sammy Watkins with their first draft pick, who will be fun to watch assuming anyone can get him the ball. Buffalo seems to be banking on the future, but unfortunately for Bills fans, the future is not now.

Chicago seemed to gain a bit of revitalization on the offensive side with Marc Trestman at the helm. 

His cerebral approach to the game makes me want him to coach someone like Peyton Manning, rather than the impulsively prone, Jay Cutler. The person who benefited most from the new offensive scheme appears to be Matt Forte, who should see continued improvement in terms of number of carries and yardage, as the team strikes a healthy balance with WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Unlike Bears team of years past, this team will be led by their offense with their defense doing just enough to let them win.

I like the Bears at home giving a shade under a TD.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: CHI

Score: 24-17

WAS @ HOU (-2.5)

I think this has the potential to be one of the better match-ups of the day. Two teams that I think, unfortunately, will likely repeat their modest performances of last year. Houston starts the year off with a bunch of new faces. New head coach Bill O’Brien, starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick and this year’s #1 draft pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Fitzpatrick probably has the most complimentary offensive tools (WR’s Andre Johnson & DeAndre Hopkins along with RB’s Arian Foster & Andre Brown) in his professional career thus far. Clowney, a beyond impressive athlete, will be playing in an unfamiliar position (OLB) and hasn't had much on the field practice due to injuries. I expect a fairly steep learning curve for him with some flashes of his potential of what is to come in a few years. He may have to learn quickly, though, as Washington (and all future opponents) will likely spend most of the day running away from the new 100 Million Dollar man – J.J. Watt, from whom we could all learn a lesson in work ethic.

Washington kicks off the year under new head coach, Jay Gruden. Gruden, known as a QB-friendly coach and offensive mind (debatable to some Cincinnati fans), no doubt was brought in by owner Dan Snyder to try and get Robert Griffin III (RGIII) back on track. Since entering the league, perhaps no QB has had such a quick rise and fall with a chance to still rise again. The acquisition of WR DeSean Jackson, flanked to the opposite side of Pierre Garcon, along with Pro Bowler Alfred Morris at RB, should all help ease some of the pressure off RGIII. The truth though, RGIII likes being option #1 & #2 as evidenced by his continuing inability to know when to slide or go out of bounds. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins as a viable QB, I don’t think Griffin has too long (read too many hits on the run), before Cousins supplants him as starter, that is if Snyder doesn't trade him to gain back the draft picks they traded away to get RGIII in the first place.

I think this game will be close throughout, with Houston leading most of the way. I see Fitz (for all the in-game references to his intellect – he really is a smart guy), making one bad throw during a critical portion of the 4^th quarter. I see Washington capitalizing and coming down kicking a game winning FG, ruining the first appearance of the “new” Texans.

Spread: WAS

Straight Up: WAS

Score: 27-24

SF @ DAL (+5)

Was I the only person left off the guest list for Ray McDonald’s party last week? Between injuries, suspensions (both drug related and otherwise), it seems like the season could not start soon enough for the 49ers.  Despite being without some of their best defense players, Jim Harbaugh’s team should be just fine. Colin Kaepernick stands to have one of those college-like days; maybe 150 yards passing, 100 or so rushing. When he gets tired of spreading the wealth among his ample receiving options (including TE Vernon Davis), he’ll be able to call on the ever reliable, Frank Gore at RB. Don’t be surprised to see some action from #2 RB, rookie, Carlos Hyde, who should be a ton of fun to watch.

From everything that I am hearing and reading, Dallas might have the worst defense…ever. The usually spend happy Cowboys really did nothing to ensure fielding a well-balanced team for the next 17 or so weeks.  If what we all know is going to happen, happens, Romo will be the scapegoat and the ‘Boys will likely be in the cellar of a less than spectacular NFC East. At least we might be able to see Michael Sam get off the practice squad and into the starting lineup by season’s end.

49ers giving 5 points on the road is really just an embarrassment to the Cowboys. I like them to cover though. It is going to be a long season of frowns in Jerry Jones’ owner box, starting with this opener.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 28-10

Thursdays Are Meaningful Again

Summer is almost over and the consolation for not having that tan that you wanted or enough beach time is the fact that Thursday night kicks off the NFL season. We all now can spend the majority of our weekdays pretending to work while we quadruple check the injury reports, fantasy waivers and weather forecasts as if we are all NFL GM’s and then the majority of our weekends ruing each decision we had made and every trade we didn't make. Over here, we’re going to do some old fashioned picks against the spreads.

Week 1, it should be noted will be game picks with slight team overviews. Subsequent weeks will take into consideration the previous week’s play. I simply just don’t put all that much weight into pre-season play (Thank you Eli and my Giants or Adrian Peterson).           

GB @ SEA (-5.5)

The Super Bowl champs start their season off at home, a place they rarely lose. Aside from wanting to start the season off with a win on the road, Green Bay will also look to avenge last year’s painful last second loss on the phantom catch by Golden Tate.

  

Seattle looks to continue its dominance on both sides of the ball.  A fierce defense led by all-mouth MVP, Richard Sherman, looks to compliment a balanced offense highlighted by Marshawn Lynch.  Beastmode, who often goes untouched into the end zone, seems to like his toys sans fingerprints as well.

Green Bay won a fairly weak NFC North last year, but returns a hopefully healthy Aaron Rogers, sophomore running back, Eddie Lacy and solid group of wide receivers. Of all the players on that offense, perhaps the most scrutiny will be on rookie center, Corey Linsley, making his debut before the home “12^th Man” Seattle crowd. Rumor has it that Rogers petitioned the NFL to go old-school auto-QB mode and self-hike every snap, but Roger Goodell was having none of it. Regardless of potential botched snaps and a few missed signals due to the crowd, any Rogers’ led team should be just fine.

I think both teams will show some off-season rust, with Seattle taking the game, but Green Bay covering. Seattle by a FG.

Spread: GB

Straight Up: SEA

Score: 17-14