Thursday Night Football (Week 4)

Can the Giants make it two in a row? If Kirk Cousins keeps playing this way, will anyone even want RGIII back as a starter? It's Thursday of week 4 and also the first day {2nd night} of Rosh Hashanah (the Jewish New Year). I think the Giants take this as an opportunity to start anew, but then again, same could be true for Washington. Who wants to be 500% coming out of the first quarter of the 2014 season? I guess we'll see.

WEEK 3 RESULTS

Spread: 7-9

Straight Up: 8-8

Thursday Night Game:

NYG @ WAS (-3.5)

The Giants finally came alive last week, playing well on all fronts. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins put up some really great numbers for Washington last week in an offensive battle against the Eagles. I still think that Philly has the best shot at winning this division outright; however, the winner of this game can carry some momentum at least aiming for 2^nd place in the division. 

If New York can continue to get their TE’s some touches, I think Eli and the Giants can eek out a win on the road. Either way, in these division games, I’d take the points, but I’m also taking the Giants in this one.

Spread: NYG

Straight Up: NYG

Score: 24-21  

Back to the Games (Week 2)

Thinking about football really does help pass the time. Before you know it, you forget about the brutal Monday night loss, only to be reminded that you are only a few days away from your team’s next crushing defeat. Not a great start to the season on the prediction front, but much like my Giants (I hope), I’m a closer.

WEEK 1 RESULTS

Spread: 7-9

Straight Up: 9-7

Let’s get right to the games:

PIT @ BAL (-3)

After the week they’ve had, the Ravens could really use a good win. I just don’t see it happening. Both Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisgerger through for about 350 yards and 1 TD last week, the former though doing it on 62 pass attempts.  Flacco’s arm, like a major league pitcher, cannot withstand this all season. I like the Steelers to continue the balanced attack (led by Le’Veon “can’t suspend me now” Bell) and pull out the victory against their conference rival. 

Spread: PIT

Straight Up: PIT

Score: 24-17

MIA @ BUF (-0.5)

After last week’s games, this may actually prove to be one of the better week 2 matchups. Buffalo comes off of a nice OT win on the road in Chicago and also learned that this week that they would be sold to a group led by the current Buffalo Sabres owner, rather than fall into the hands of Jon Bon Jovi’s group. Well Buffalo, you’re halfway there, but far from getting back to Super Bowl territory. Miami comes off of a fairly dominant performance at home, beating the Patriots by 13. I think the difference in this game comes down to the RB’s. Whichever team has more trouble stopping the run will lose out. I think the duo of Moreno & Miller (Miami’s M&Ms?) will be too much for the Bills defense. Dolphins start the season 2-0. 

Spread: MIA

Straight Up: MIA

Score: 30-24

DET @ CAR (-2.5)

The Panthers pulled out a surprising victory last week without Cam Newton. Regardless of whether Newton plays or not this week, the Panthers secondary will have their hands full with Calvin Johnson. Even if they choose to double cover him with a roaming safety, that will leave plenty of options for Mathew Stafford on his check downs (any choice of three huge TE’s, RB Reggie Bush as well as WR Golden Tate). The Lions Achilles heel, as mentioned last week, is their lack of discipline on defense.  I expect them to continue to take unnecessary penalties, which will certainly hurt them in close games during this season. I just expect their proficient offense to offset most of these mistakes. I like the Lions by a lot.

Spread: DET

Straight Up: DET

Score: 35-20

ATL @ CIN (-5.5)

Matt Ryan looked like he was playing the Madden version of himself last weekend, putting up console worthy stats. Although the Bengals might have a better defense than the Saints, if Ryan is in the zone again, watch out. Cincinnati will also need more out of their offense aside from A.J. Green. Look for them to try and get Giovani Bernard a bit more involved. Either way, if this becomes a shootout, I like the Falcons by a TD.

Spread: ATL

Straight Up: ATL

Score: 31-24

NO @ CLE (+6)

Both these teams lost last week at the last possible second on game ending FG’s. The Browns, for the record, has a nice comeback turn up just short, while the Saints let the game slip out of their hands against the Falcons. Cleveland really is getting no respect at home getting six points and until further notice probably won’t. I expect safety Donte Whitner (12 tackles last week), to be extremely busy as Drew Brees attempt to pick apart the Browns secondary. In the end, I think the Saints learn to not squander a lead; putting the points on early and often and putting the game out of reach for the comeback Browns.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 38-17

NE @ MIN (+3)

The Patriots had a disappointing loss on the road in Miami. Meanwhile, the Vikings went on the road and beat up an already decimated Rams group, knocking out 8^th string QB Shaun Hill in the process. The Vikings looked good on offense and their defense is still waiting to play against a first string offense. I’m not yet confident that the Patriots are that team. Vikings, coming off a 28 point win, getting points at home? I’ll take it. It also is fun to think of the Patriots starting 0-2.

Spread: MIN

Straight Up: MIN

Score: 27-24

ARI @ NYG (-2)

I hate this game for so many reasons, the least of which means that I think the Giants will start the season with their 2^nd loss. If anyone has been reading for the last week or so (I hope you’re out there), you’ll know I love the Giants, but don’t have high hopes for them at all. If they play again like they did in Detroit, they may have the #1 draft pick locked up before week 10. The Cardinals, on the other hand, played well enough to win, particularly in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game. Carson Palmer looked reminiscent of a college QB, spreading the ball across multiple receivers and even scrambling for yardage on several plays. Until the Giants prove they can score at all, I like the odds of any team playing them. Cardinals by a FG.

Spread: ARI

Straight Up: ARI

Score: 13-10

DAL @ TEN (-3.5)

Jake Locker and the Titans went into KC and just dominated them in every facet of the game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys couldn’t have looked worse, unless they had gone up against the Giants. Tony Romo looked like his old self, making poor throws and incurring way too many turnovers. When you have a defense that can hold its own, sometimes you can survive, but when you have one of the worst professional defense’s I have ever seen, then you won’t win too many games. I like the Titans to dominate on offense, until the Cowboys prove they can stop anyone at all.  

Spread: TEN

Straight Up: TEN

Score: 27-17

JAC @ WAS (-6)

If I’m Gus Bradley, I am getting the mind erase thing from Men in Black, using it and telling them that they are about to start the second half up 17-0. The Jaguars hit the Eagles head on during the first half of last week’s game, only to see their lead, and ultimately, the game, disappear from their clenches. Good news for the Jags; they play a Washington team which struggled to score against a very good Texans defense. They need more out of every one of their offensive weapons, particularly RGIII, who as mentioned previously, I’m not sold on as being the future of their team. The Jags forced a lot of fumbles last week and Washington is susceptible to TO’s. I like the game to be close, with the Jags pulling out a win in the end, marking Coach Bradley’s first win for his new team.

Spread: JAC

Straight Up: JAC

Score: 24-21

Week 1 Picks (some early games)

First game of the year surprised me a bit (I can't be the only one right?). Seattle looked about as good as expected, but it was Green Bay that looked surprisingly flat. An Eddie Lacy concussion, bad penalties and suspect defense play all have the makings of a long season for the Packers.  More to come in the Monday Download. 

Let's get right to the next set of games.

NO @ ATL (+3)

Several years ago, these games used to be a lot closer. Now, each team appears to be heading in different directions. New Orleans, already an explosive offense, went out and drafted speedy WR Brandin Cooks, only furthering their depth there. The Saints do have some questions at the RB position with no one definitely taking charge. Mark Ingram will likely start as the #1 back, but who finishes the season as the leading rusher is anybody’s best guess. Drew Brees, however, should be just fine throwing to any number of his weapons, including Jimmy “don’tcall me TE” Graham.

Atlanta, similar to the Saints, has nice depth for their wide receivers and should be just fine on that front, assuming Julio Jones stays healthy this year. Losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement won't help them, but may create some more opportunities for other players like Harry Douglas (full disclosure, I’m a very big Louisville Cardinals fan). The Falcons, much like the Saints, have a lot of questions at the RB position. Starter Steven Jackson, 31, is old by NFL standards and I can’t see him playing a full schedule this year. Until Jackson proves that he can help open up some gaps for the Falcons, I expect Rob Ryan to blitz early and often with his Saints’ defense. Matt Ryan will have his hands full.

New Orleans is getting 3 points, but I’d have taken them getting 9.  I think they pull out the easy victory by 10.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 34-24

CIN @ BAL (-1.5)

I just don’t think Baltimore is that good. They have speed with their WR’s and an extra pop with the addition of Steve Smith. No Ray Rice means Bernard Pierce will handle the RB load. He is a capable, big back, but more of a head on collision type of runner than your elusive, lateral runner. Their defense should be solid as usual and I look forward to seeing rookie C.J. Mosley make his impact felt immediately, but their lack of offensive capabilities should likely stunt Joe Flacco and co.’s ability to get into the end zone.

Cincinnati enters the season very similar to the previous ones – likely to finish atop a mediocre division only to fizzle out come playoff time. The Bengals return Giovani Bernard at RB and of course, A.J. Green at WR, to compliment the sometimes shaky, Andy Dalton at QB. They have added some depth at both the RB & WR positions and should be solid on the defensive end, particularly with their CB play. In this game, they just need to outscore Baltimore, which shouldn't be a problem.

Take Cincinnati, the underdog here, getting points.

Spread: CIN

Straight Up: CIN

Score: 13-10

BUF @ CHI (-6.5)

Good news for Buffalo is that they’re playing in Chicago while it’s still warm. Bad news, pretty much everything else. Yes, they have a young QB in E.J Manuel (who might not even be starting by week 4). They also have a pretty good RB combo of C.J. Spiller & Fred Jackson, who we’d like to see both remain healthy. They went out and drafted speedy WR Sammy Watkins with their first draft pick, who will be fun to watch assuming anyone can get him the ball. Buffalo seems to be banking on the future, but unfortunately for Bills fans, the future is not now.

Chicago seemed to gain a bit of revitalization on the offensive side with Marc Trestman at the helm. 

His cerebral approach to the game makes me want him to coach someone like Peyton Manning, rather than the impulsively prone, Jay Cutler. The person who benefited most from the new offensive scheme appears to be Matt Forte, who should see continued improvement in terms of number of carries and yardage, as the team strikes a healthy balance with WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Unlike Bears team of years past, this team will be led by their offense with their defense doing just enough to let them win.

I like the Bears at home giving a shade under a TD.

Spread: CHI

Straight Up: CHI

Score: 24-17

WAS @ HOU (-2.5)

I think this has the potential to be one of the better match-ups of the day. Two teams that I think, unfortunately, will likely repeat their modest performances of last year. Houston starts the year off with a bunch of new faces. New head coach Bill O’Brien, starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick and this year’s #1 draft pick, Jadeveon Clowney. Fitzpatrick probably has the most complimentary offensive tools (WR’s Andre Johnson & DeAndre Hopkins along with RB’s Arian Foster & Andre Brown) in his professional career thus far. Clowney, a beyond impressive athlete, will be playing in an unfamiliar position (OLB) and hasn't had much on the field practice due to injuries. I expect a fairly steep learning curve for him with some flashes of his potential of what is to come in a few years. He may have to learn quickly, though, as Washington (and all future opponents) will likely spend most of the day running away from the new 100 Million Dollar man – J.J. Watt, from whom we could all learn a lesson in work ethic.

Washington kicks off the year under new head coach, Jay Gruden. Gruden, known as a QB-friendly coach and offensive mind (debatable to some Cincinnati fans), no doubt was brought in by owner Dan Snyder to try and get Robert Griffin III (RGIII) back on track. Since entering the league, perhaps no QB has had such a quick rise and fall with a chance to still rise again. The acquisition of WR DeSean Jackson, flanked to the opposite side of Pierre Garcon, along with Pro Bowler Alfred Morris at RB, should all help ease some of the pressure off RGIII. The truth though, RGIII likes being option #1 & #2 as evidenced by his continuing inability to know when to slide or go out of bounds. With the emergence of Kirk Cousins as a viable QB, I don’t think Griffin has too long (read too many hits on the run), before Cousins supplants him as starter, that is if Snyder doesn't trade him to gain back the draft picks they traded away to get RGIII in the first place.

I think this game will be close throughout, with Houston leading most of the way. I see Fitz (for all the in-game references to his intellect – he really is a smart guy), making one bad throw during a critical portion of the 4^th quarter. I see Washington capitalizing and coming down kicking a game winning FG, ruining the first appearance of the “new” Texans.

Spread: WAS

Straight Up: WAS

Score: 27-24

SF @ DAL (+5)

Was I the only person left off the guest list for Ray McDonald’s party last week? Between injuries, suspensions (both drug related and otherwise), it seems like the season could not start soon enough for the 49ers.  Despite being without some of their best defense players, Jim Harbaugh’s team should be just fine. Colin Kaepernick stands to have one of those college-like days; maybe 150 yards passing, 100 or so rushing. When he gets tired of spreading the wealth among his ample receiving options (including TE Vernon Davis), he’ll be able to call on the ever reliable, Frank Gore at RB. Don’t be surprised to see some action from #2 RB, rookie, Carlos Hyde, who should be a ton of fun to watch.

From everything that I am hearing and reading, Dallas might have the worst defense…ever. The usually spend happy Cowboys really did nothing to ensure fielding a well-balanced team for the next 17 or so weeks.  If what we all know is going to happen, happens, Romo will be the scapegoat and the ‘Boys will likely be in the cellar of a less than spectacular NFC East. At least we might be able to see Michael Sam get off the practice squad and into the starting lineup by season’s end.

49ers giving 5 points on the road is really just an embarrassment to the Cowboys. I like them to cover though. It is going to be a long season of frowns in Jerry Jones’ owner box, starting with this opener.

Spread: SF

Straight Up: SF

Score: 28-10