Points Will Flow as Teams Find Rhythm

I think there will be some high scoring games this week and wouldn't be surprised if about 6 teams go over the 30+ point mark.

Let's get to the games:

NE @ BUF (PK)

The Bills had a very good Week 1 and have one of the best defenses in football, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Pick erm with the Pats? I take the Pats.

Spread: NE
Straight Up: NE
Score: 21-17

HOU @ CAR (-3.5)

I think this game with be short on defense, so whoever can generate a better flow on the other end will win out. I like Houston to be the one to do so here. Take the points and the Texans for the win.

Spread: HOU
Straight Up: HOU
Score: 31-21

ARI @ CHI (+2)

I like the Bears getting points, I don't know why though. Maybe it is pity, maybe it's because I think Matt Forte is tired of losing and I see him willing Chicago to this victory.

Spread: CHI
Straight Up: CHI
Score: 23-20

SD @ CIN (-3)

The Bengals had a good Week 1 against a pretty bad Oakland team. San Diego is certainly a better opponent, but they travel East to face a fairly staunch Bengals defense. I expect this to be primarily an offensive showing, with the Bengals coming out on top. I like them to cover.

Spread: CIN
Straight Up: CIN
Score: 31-24

TEN @ CLE (+1)

I realize that the Titans played Tampa Bay last week, but really? Johnny football going to lead the Browns to the promised land? I doubt it. Taking Tennessee to cover and for the win.

Spread: TEN
Straight Up: TEN
Score: 24-17

DET @ MIN (-3)

I hope that Vikings can learn to block anyone with their offensive line, otherwise, Teddy Bridgewater won't have such a long career. Until they show me otherwise, I'll take Detroit with the points.

Spread: DET
Straight Up: DET
Score: 27-13

TB @ NO (-10)

Big spread even for the inept Tamp Bay defense. Until New Orleans blows someone out, I'll wait and take the points.

Spread: TB
Straight Up: NO
Score: 31-22

ATL @ NYG (-2.5)

I think this should actually be a good game. However, if last week is any indication, if it is close at the end, I like Atlanta. Taking the points.

Spread: ATL
Straight Up: ATL
Score: 30-27

SF @ PIT (-6.5)

Way too many points for a San Francisco team that ran all over the Vikings defense last week. Taking the points, but the Steelers for the win.

Spread: SF
Straight Up: PIT
Score: 20-17

STL @ WAS (+3)

The Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 1 and in return they only get to be 3 point favorites? I like them by a TD, at least.

Spread: STL
Straight Up: STL
Score: 24-17

MIA @ JAC (+6)

I don't think Miami is going to blow anyone out just yet. They're still working out the kinks on offense. I'll take the points.

Spread: JAC
Straight Up: MIA
Score: 23-20

BAL @ OAK (+6.5)

Whoever is playing QB for the Raiders, I still think it will be ugly. I'll take the Ravens defense for the win and their offense (although a bit inept) to cover.

Spread: BAL
Straight Up: BAL
Score: 17-10

DAL @ PHI (-4.5)

Everyone is talking about this game as if it is DeMarco Murray against the Cowboys. Judging by last week's game, Chip Kelly is more likely to platoon him with Mathews and Sproles. I like the Eagles to win, but the Cowboys to cover.

Spread: DAL
Straight Up: PHI
Score: 27-24

SEA @ GB (-3.5)

Ask the Seahawks if they are missing Cam Chancellor after this game. I like Green Bay to cover.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 31-21

NYJ @ IND (-7)

The Colts are already banged up at WR and although it looks like Cromartie isn't going to play, I still think the defense can stop them. I like the Jets to cover here. I'm not sure they can win, but they'll keep it close.

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: IND
Score: 23-20

Week 1 - Sunday Early Games

We got our football appetites wet on Thursday. One game in and we already have our first controversy. Looking forward to see what the rest of this weekend's games bring.

Let's get right to the games:

IND @ BUF (+2.5)



The Rex Ryan era starts in Buffalo. I am always skeptical when the biggest off-season acquisition is your coach. Granted, the Bills also went out and acquired RB LeSean McCoy, who by many accounts, is a shell of what he used to be in Philadelphia. Regardless, if we have learned anything about Rex Ryan's teams is that they will be very good on defense and at best, inconsistent on offense. Expect much of the same this year, with both the QB & RB positions in-flux. Poor play by either of these positions severely limits second year WR Sammy Watkins potential to accrue big numbers, as he likely will face double coverage much of the year.

On Sunday lining up against the Bills defense will be RB Frank Gore and WR Andre Johnson. Is this a throwback Pro Bowl Team circa 2010? Nope - it's just the Colts going out and getting some very serviceable talent until all their young players are fully ready.  Both Johnson and Gore are coming off of years playing for really bad offensive teams, however, with a talent like QB Andrew Luck, they no longer have to be THE GUY and can settle into complimentary roles in a well-balanced offense.


I think this game will be close enough, but with Gore & Luck able to manage the clock in the 4th quarter, I like the Colts to keep the Bills at bay.  Colts by a FG.

Spread: IND
Straight Up: IND
Score: 20-17

GB @ CHI (+6.5)

Simply put, the Bears are not very good and the Packers are. Not much to the analysis here. Unfortunately, the Packers lost WR Jordy Nelson for the season, but have more than enough talent to put points on the board. Speaking of talent, anyone see QB Aaron Rogers on Celebrity Jeopardy? The man is versatile, that's all I'm saying.

The Bears meanwhile seem to be going through a slew of injuries, particularly to their WR core. If their starters, particularly WR Alshon Jeffrey are unable to play, this will put even more pressure on RB Matt Forte and QB Jay Cutler. Forte seems to handle pressure well, but Cutler is another story. Regardless, the Bears look like they are in for a very difficult game and and even more difficult season.

I think the Packers score early and often and will cover handily.

Spread: GB
Straight Up: GB
Score: 35-17

KC @ HOU (-1)

This is one of those games where I'd rather watch the defenses be on the field. The Chiefs have some talent on offense with RB Jamaal Charles and newly acquired WR Jeremy Maclin. The Texans have some decent weapons on their end, however are without RB Arian Foster for the first few games of the season. Even when he returns, their offense experience some growing pains and likely won't see any consistency until at least Week 7.

We can't talk about the Houston defense without mentioning DE J.J. Watt. I don't know him personally, but there does not seem to be a more talented and humble person playing the game of football today. I hope that Houston gets smart and starts using him full-time in iron man football this season. The bromance is real. Houston improves it's defense with ultimate run stopper Vince "the human forklift" Wilfork and the hopeful healthy return of herald LB Jadeveon Clowney. Kansas City, to their own credit, has some real speed on the defensive front, particularly from DE Tamba Hali.

Defense will be key here and whoever has more takeaways should win the game. Chiefs QB Alex Smith is known for control and I think he'll keep the turnovers to a minimum. I like the Chiefs to sneak away with a close win on the road in Houston.

Spread: KC
Straight Up: KC
Score: 17-14

CAR @ JAC (+3)

This game is very important for both teams, because after about Week 8, both teams are likely going to be out of the running for a playoff spot. The biggest question for the Jaguars this year is how will second year QB Blake Bortles fair. He'll be better if they ever get TE Julius Thomas back from injury. Until then, they'll rely heavily on rookie RB T.J. Yeldon, hope Bortles can keep the interceptions to a minimum (doubtful) and hope the defense is able to keep things competitive.

Did all of the Panthers hopes at being competitive go down with WR and freakish athlete Kelvin Benjamin's season ending injury? Probably not. They were doomed from the start. QB Cam Newton has come back down to reality a bit and is now just an above-average talent, without much help by way of offensive weapons. On defense, Carolina just resigned LB Luke Kuechly, a great talent. Too bad he can't play three positions at once.

I don't see either team playing overly inspired, nor scoring much. I like the Jags at home getting points, but the Panthers getting the road victory.

Spread: JAGS
Straight Up: CAR
Score: 17-16

CLE @ NYJ (-3)

We all know about the Jets starting the season after QB Geno Smith broke his jaw earlier in training camp. So they'll start the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I think this is an improvement at the position, if only in cutting down the turnovers. Add in WR's Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and the Jets have themselves some potential to put a few points on the board.

The Browns, unfortunately, look to be the same as they have been in years past - pretty terrible. Their defense may keep them in games, but I wouldn't expect much from them by way of their offense. Browns fans may want to start paying better attention to those Saturday College Football games, because they are likely to be in the running for that #1 draft pick by the end of this season.

I think the Jets take this game easily covering the spread.

Spread: NYJ
Straight Up: NYJScore: 21-10

SEA @ STL (+4)

The Rams start the year with several young RB's, most of whom are currently hurt (Tre Mason & Todd Gurley) and a brand new QB in Nick Foles. When healthy, they have the potential to put up a lot of points. Until they get up to that point, they will have to rely heavily on a defense that should be decent.

Even the casual football fan knows that the Seahawks have been one of the most successful franchises of the last few years. They are nearly unstoppable at home and still pretty good on the road. I don't see them having too much trouble with the Rams.

I like Seattle to get the road victory, but the Rams will keep it close. I'll take the points.

Spread: STL
Straight Up: SEA
Score: 23-20

MIA @ WAS (+3.5)

The RGIII-less Redskins may be almost as bad as the Browns. QB Kirk Cousins isn't bad, but he is going to need a lot of help this year. I just don't see anyone on the team stepping up.

Miami enters the season putting their winning hopes on the shoulders of QB Ryan Tannehill. Unlike Cousins in Washington, Tannehill should finally have a good supporting cast on offense. Adding Ndamukong Suh on defense should only help bolster that side of the field, assuming he can keep the stupid penalties and subsequent suspensions to a minimum. Doubtful though.

It is never good to be getting points at home, but Washington isn't favored for a reason. I like Miami to cover, winning by a touchdown.

Spread: MIA
Straight Up: MIA
Score: 31-24

Back to the Games (Week 2)

Thinking about football really does help pass the time. Before you know it, you forget about the brutal Monday night loss, only to be reminded that you are only a few days away from your team’s next crushing defeat. Not a great start to the season on the prediction front, but much like my Giants (I hope), I’m a closer.

WEEK 1 RESULTS

Spread: 7-9

Straight Up: 9-7

Let’s get right to the games:

PIT @ BAL (-3)

After the week they’ve had, the Ravens could really use a good win. I just don’t see it happening. Both Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisgerger through for about 350 yards and 1 TD last week, the former though doing it on 62 pass attempts.  Flacco’s arm, like a major league pitcher, cannot withstand this all season. I like the Steelers to continue the balanced attack (led by Le’Veon “can’t suspend me now” Bell) and pull out the victory against their conference rival. 

Spread: PIT

Straight Up: PIT

Score: 24-17

MIA @ BUF (-0.5)

After last week’s games, this may actually prove to be one of the better week 2 matchups. Buffalo comes off of a nice OT win on the road in Chicago and also learned that this week that they would be sold to a group led by the current Buffalo Sabres owner, rather than fall into the hands of Jon Bon Jovi’s group. Well Buffalo, you’re halfway there, but far from getting back to Super Bowl territory. Miami comes off of a fairly dominant performance at home, beating the Patriots by 13. I think the difference in this game comes down to the RB’s. Whichever team has more trouble stopping the run will lose out. I think the duo of Moreno & Miller (Miami’s M&Ms?) will be too much for the Bills defense. Dolphins start the season 2-0. 

Spread: MIA

Straight Up: MIA

Score: 30-24

DET @ CAR (-2.5)

The Panthers pulled out a surprising victory last week without Cam Newton. Regardless of whether Newton plays or not this week, the Panthers secondary will have their hands full with Calvin Johnson. Even if they choose to double cover him with a roaming safety, that will leave plenty of options for Mathew Stafford on his check downs (any choice of three huge TE’s, RB Reggie Bush as well as WR Golden Tate). The Lions Achilles heel, as mentioned last week, is their lack of discipline on defense.  I expect them to continue to take unnecessary penalties, which will certainly hurt them in close games during this season. I just expect their proficient offense to offset most of these mistakes. I like the Lions by a lot.

Spread: DET

Straight Up: DET

Score: 35-20

ATL @ CIN (-5.5)

Matt Ryan looked like he was playing the Madden version of himself last weekend, putting up console worthy stats. Although the Bengals might have a better defense than the Saints, if Ryan is in the zone again, watch out. Cincinnati will also need more out of their offense aside from A.J. Green. Look for them to try and get Giovani Bernard a bit more involved. Either way, if this becomes a shootout, I like the Falcons by a TD.

Spread: ATL

Straight Up: ATL

Score: 31-24

NO @ CLE (+6)

Both these teams lost last week at the last possible second on game ending FG’s. The Browns, for the record, has a nice comeback turn up just short, while the Saints let the game slip out of their hands against the Falcons. Cleveland really is getting no respect at home getting six points and until further notice probably won’t. I expect safety Donte Whitner (12 tackles last week), to be extremely busy as Drew Brees attempt to pick apart the Browns secondary. In the end, I think the Saints learn to not squander a lead; putting the points on early and often and putting the game out of reach for the comeback Browns.

Spread: NO

Straight Up: NO

Score: 38-17

NE @ MIN (+3)

The Patriots had a disappointing loss on the road in Miami. Meanwhile, the Vikings went on the road and beat up an already decimated Rams group, knocking out 8^th string QB Shaun Hill in the process. The Vikings looked good on offense and their defense is still waiting to play against a first string offense. I’m not yet confident that the Patriots are that team. Vikings, coming off a 28 point win, getting points at home? I’ll take it. It also is fun to think of the Patriots starting 0-2.

Spread: MIN

Straight Up: MIN

Score: 27-24

ARI @ NYG (-2)

I hate this game for so many reasons, the least of which means that I think the Giants will start the season with their 2^nd loss. If anyone has been reading for the last week or so (I hope you’re out there), you’ll know I love the Giants, but don’t have high hopes for them at all. If they play again like they did in Detroit, they may have the #1 draft pick locked up before week 10. The Cardinals, on the other hand, played well enough to win, particularly in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game. Carson Palmer looked reminiscent of a college QB, spreading the ball across multiple receivers and even scrambling for yardage on several plays. Until the Giants prove they can score at all, I like the odds of any team playing them. Cardinals by a FG.

Spread: ARI

Straight Up: ARI

Score: 13-10

DAL @ TEN (-3.5)

Jake Locker and the Titans went into KC and just dominated them in every facet of the game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys couldn’t have looked worse, unless they had gone up against the Giants. Tony Romo looked like his old self, making poor throws and incurring way too many turnovers. When you have a defense that can hold its own, sometimes you can survive, but when you have one of the worst professional defense’s I have ever seen, then you won’t win too many games. I like the Titans to dominate on offense, until the Cowboys prove they can stop anyone at all.  

Spread: TEN

Straight Up: TEN

Score: 27-17

JAC @ WAS (-6)

If I’m Gus Bradley, I am getting the mind erase thing from Men in Black, using it and telling them that they are about to start the second half up 17-0. The Jaguars hit the Eagles head on during the first half of last week’s game, only to see their lead, and ultimately, the game, disappear from their clenches. Good news for the Jags; they play a Washington team which struggled to score against a very good Texans defense. They need more out of every one of their offensive weapons, particularly RGIII, who as mentioned previously, I’m not sold on as being the future of their team. The Jags forced a lot of fumbles last week and Washington is susceptible to TO’s. I like the game to be close, with the Jags pulling out a win in the end, marking Coach Bradley’s first win for his new team.

Spread: JAC

Straight Up: JAC

Score: 24-21

24 Hours to Kickoff

Week 1 around here, much like the NFL season, is just about working out the finer points. I hope everyone gets a chance to at least watch a few college football games today. As I tell my wife Jen (who has now exceeded me in number of fantasy NFL leagues in which she participates), you need to pay some attention to these players - after all, you'll be drafting some next year. 

Here we go with some more Week 1 NFL picks:

TEN @ KC (-3.5)

Remember when the Chiefs won 9 straight games to start the 2013 season? You don’t? That’s because everyone remembers the last 8 (including the playoffs) where they went 2-6. In a very much “what have you done for me lately?” situation, the Chiefs simply need to play like the team from the first half of last year or else they may find themselves very much forgotten again – even by their own fans: 

Steady-handed QB Alex Smith hopes he can discover a new favorite target, now that they will be without Dwayne Bowe (suspension). I hear former TE great, Tony Gonzalez is available. By default or necessity, leave it to all-purpose RB Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs once again in nearly every category; just don’t ask him to move any furniture during the bye week.

The Tennessee Titans face a world of questions to start the season. Will Jake Locker remain healthy? (Answer: not likely). Will new coach Kent Whisenhunt be able to squeeze as much offensive talent as he has in previous stints in Pittsburgh and Arizona? (Answer: definitely). Will anyone step up in the running game to makes us reminisce about the days when Chris Johnson was actually a threat? (Answer: maybe rookie Bishop Sankey…in a few years). Look for the big-splash (by Tennessee standards) signee, Dexter McCluster, try to break out against his former team. McCluster, primarily used as a return man (Pro Bowler), should be given many different looks in a Whisenhunt-planned offense. Despite this, I expect them to struggle a bit acclimating, until #1 WR’s & RB’s emerge to help the talented Locker.

I think Andy Reid has his group start well as they did last year, doing more than enough to beat the visiting Titans.

Spread: KC

Straight Up: KC

Score: 30-20

NE @ MIA (+5)

If you believe in the simple rule of spreads, namely that a home team automatically receives 3 points, then Miami is in for a very long game. The Dolphins have all the makings of a mediocre team; an overpaid and underachieving WR (Mike Wallace) and loads of potential in RB Lamar Miller and QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace, known for his downfield speed (and running his mouth), should stick to the former, which he failed all too often to do last year, only getting into the end zone 5 times. With a better than average defense, Miami will likely play around 500 all year. Here, I just don’t see them being strong enough on either side of the ball to really challenge Tom Brady and the Patriots.

I hate the Patriots. I won’t let it cloud my judgment, but I really don’t like them. Having gone to college in New England, the only thing worse than listening to a Patriots fan during football season (they won the Super Bowl 3 out of my 4 years there), perhaps is listening to a Red Sox fan talk about anything.  Here is a simple prediction. The number of points scored per game this season will be directly related to Rob Gronkowski’s health. Talk about RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley or WR’s Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, as far as I’m concerned, let them all stay on the line blocking. If Gronk is healthy, they can put up 35 points/game, easily. Now, if he isn’t 100%, then their strong defense will look to keep them in games. 

Here, against this Dolphins team, half a Gronk should suffice. I’ll take the Patriots by a lot.

Spread: NE

Straight Up: NE

Score: 38-18

OAK @ NYJ (-5.5)

The New York Jets enter the season with nearly identical questions to the start of the 2013 campaign. Will Rex Ryan survive as the coach? Is Geno Smith the QB of the future? If Geno starts making the throw can anyone catch the ball? I think the answer is categorically, no. Ryan has gotten along for far too long on bravado without any true results. His offensive teams are like football’s version of the DH – just collect a paycheck and die out. Defensively, we know he can coach and his players happily buy into his system. Too bad their enthusiasm can’t make the offense synch up. Smith, much like last year, stands to struggle while he tries to find a reliable offensive target. Newcomer Eric Decker should be a solid addition at WR to a group that surely needs standout. Unfortunately, for Decker, Peyton Manning with a vertebrae injury, throwing lefty from his hospital bed, is probably more reliable than Smith. Rookie TE Jase Amaro might one day be Smith’s go-to, but who knows though if he develops soon enough for Smith to still be starting. Knowing that rookie QB Derek Carr will get the start for Oakland, I look forward to seeing Ryan blitz early and often, particularly with his new rookie safety, Calvin Pryor.

Aside from Carr and heralded first round draft pick, Khaleel Mack at LB, the Raiders field a team of players beyond their prime. They re-signed the oft-injured, but consistently disappointing Darren McFadden to split reps with Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD, who pretty much wasted a career playing for the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, now looks to rejuvenate himself in Oakland. I just don’t see it ending well. I think Carr will show flashes of potential, but overall, the Raiders are just not that good. Against the Jets, much like the remainder of the season, they’ll play close enough to keep it exciting for 3 quarters, only to lose it all in the end.

I like the Jets to win, but the Raiders to cover. Take the points.

Spread: OAK

Straight Up: NYJ

Score: 20-17

JAC @ PHI (-10)

This is really a tale of two teams: Philadelphia is a score now and ask questions later type team and Jacksonville just stinks. Eagles coach Brian Kelly is known as somewhat of an offensive guru, but if it were me, I’d only need one play – draw to LeSean McCoy. Until any team proves that they can stop him regularly (which none thus far have been able to do), just feed him the ball as much as possible. If, on occasion, he needs a rest, Eagles fans can take comfort in the fact that QB Nick Foles has developed into a reliable passer, oh and the Eagles also have possibly the fastest man in football now in Darren Sproles. Many questions remain on the defensive end, however, Philadelphia looks to outscore nearly everyone they play this year, particularly in a weakened NFC East.

Good thing that first year head coach Gus Bradley is a defense-first type; his defense will be on the field a lot this year. They added a slew of veterans on defense (mostly guys no one has ever heard of) to compliment LB Paul Posluszny, who has looked like the real leader of the defense group. For all the defensive talk, though, all eyes will be on the offense. The Jags went out and spent their first round draft pick on QB Blake Bortles, a highly scrutinized choice, that looks, thus far, to have been a great long-term decision. Current starter Chad Henne is merely there as a placeholder, just waiting for the loyal fans to clamor enough for Bradley to pull the hook on him. I give them six weeks before Bortles is starting at home in a possible rookie vs. rookie matchup against the Browns and Johnny Manziel.

I am always wary of double-digit spreads, but until the Jags show they can stop anyone, I see a lot of lopsided losses. The Eagles, as we know, have the potential to score loads of points, with the only real opponent being the clock running out of time. I’m taking the Eagles.

Spread: PHI

Straight Up: PHI

Score: 41-10